INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Softwood Markets by Ed Pepke Forest Product.

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INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Softwood Markets by Ed Pepke Forest Product Marketing Specialist Timber Branch Trade Development and Timber Division United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and Food and Agricultural Organization

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Subjects of presentation Overall market situation in 2004 Roundwood Sawnwood Panels Certified forest products Timber Committee recommendations Outlook for softwood sector through 2010

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Sources of Information Forest Products Annual Market Analysis, Forest Products Markets: Perspectives for 2004 UNECE/FAO TIMBER database FAO database European Forest Sector Outlook Studies

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Highlights from Forest Products Annual Market Analysis, /4 · Forest law enforcement, governance and trade policies are being developed as countries build partnerships to control illegal logging and the trade of forest products sourced from illegal harvesting. UNECE region forest products markets turned upwards in 2002, overcoming the dip in 2001, achieving some record levels. Certified forest area worldwide extended to over 160 million hectares by mid-2003, 95% of which are in the UNECE region, however, not all potentially labeled certified forest products reach final consumers.

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Highlights from Annual Market Analysis. 2/4 Total roundwood consumption for the UNECE region was 1.3 billion m 3, well within sustainable harvest limits. Structural oversupply has arisen for some products and subregions, and with strong global competition, this has increased pressure on the economic viability of forest management in some countries. Forest products markets remained weak in western Europe, with the exception of sawn softwood, which bounced back from a drop in 2001 to reach record production and exports levels.

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Highlights from Annual Market Analysis. 3/4 Strong housing construction in the United States drove demand for sawn softwood and structural panels, with an increasing amount being imported. Increased market share of imported forest products led the United States to continue quotas and tariffs on Canadian sawnwood imports in 2002 through mid Markets in central and eastern Europe exhibited strong, continuing recovery in 2002, and for some products, pre- transition levels were attained.

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Highlights from Annual Market Analysis. 4/4 Consumption of wood energy in the EU/EFTA rose to a record level in 2002, leading panel and pulp manufacturers to express concern about competition for their raw material. CIS exports of roundwood and sawnwood expanded to record levels, but domestic consumption remained soft. Sawn softwood consumption, production and trade rose to record levels in the UNECE region in 2002, but sawn hardwood demand peaked in 1999 and has since been falling.

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France EU/EFTA CEECs CIS

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Production mondiale de bois de chauffage et de bois rond industriel

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France World softwood production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France World Roundwood Trade

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Industrial Roundwood Importers, 2002 (million m 3 ) China26Canada8 Japan13Austria7 Finland13United States7 Sweden10Italy5 Korea, Rep.8France2

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Industrial Roundwood Exporters, 2002 (million m 3 ) Russia37Germany4 United States11Latvia4 New Zealand8France4 Malaysia5Estonia3 Canada5Gabon3

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Regional Industrial Roundwood Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Regional Industrial Roundwood Consumption

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Regional Industrial Roundwood Exports

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Industrial Roundwood Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Regional Log Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Softwood Log Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Pulpwood Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Roundwood Consumption 1000 m 3 équivalent

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Roundwood Utilization

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France North American Roundwood Consumption 1000 m 3 équivalent

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Russian Roundwood Consumption 1000 m 3 équivalent

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Forecasts for Russia Increasing sawn softwood exports by 5% in 2004 to reach 10 million m3, exceeding former USSR levels Domestic consumption stabilizing at 8.5 million m3 Continued legal framework problems Increased foreign investments to add 1 million m3 in sawnwood capacity Other products exports growing fast, e.g. pulp, plywood

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France World Sawnwood Consumption

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Regional Sawnwood Consumption

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Sawnwood (with hardwood)

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Sawn Softwood (no hardwood)

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Sawn Softwood Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Sawn Softwood EU/EFTA versus CEECs

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Russian Sawnwood

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Sawnwood Exports

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France North American Sawnwood Exports

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Russian Sawnwood Exports

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Sawnwood Imports

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France North American Sawnwood Consumption

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France North American Sawn Softwood Consumption 1.7 million houses per year in the United States US increasing imports, decreasing exports US reducing harvests 34% of US consumption from Canada ~ 95% of Canadian exports go to the US Softwood Lumber Agreement resulted in 27% duties on imported Canadian sawn softwood Weaker US$ has not reduced imports

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Sawn Softwood Exports, 2004 Million m 3 Canada36.2 Sweden11.0 Finland8.3 Russia9.6 Austria6.5 France0.8

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Sawn Softwood Exports, 2004 Million m 3 Sweden11.0 Finland8.3 Austria6.5 Germany4.0 Latvia2.3 Million m 3 Czech Rep. 1.4 Romania1.6 Estonia1.2 France0.8 Norway0.6

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Sawn Softwood Imports, 2004 Million m 3 United States35.9 United Kingdom7.6 Italy6.3 Germany4.1 Denmark4.0 France2.8

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Sawn Softwood Imports, 2004 Million m 3 United Kingdom7.6 Italy6.3 Germany4.1 Denmark4.0 France2.8 Million m 3 Netherlands2.3 Spain1.8 Austria1.2 Hungary1.0 Belgium1.4

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Wood-based Panel Markets Considerable use of softwood (25%) Particleboard main product Dynamic growth in MDF Fast penetration of OSB, but low levels Plywood maintaining market share

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Regional Panel Consumption

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Panel Consumption

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Regional Panel Imports

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Regional Panel Exports

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Russian Panel Market Forecasts Consumption+ 13% from ,252,000 m3 + 8% from ,060,000 m3 Production+ 13% from ,395,000 m3 + 8% from ,980,000 m3 Exports+ 11% from ,548,000 m3 + 9% from ,950,000 m3 Imports+ 13% from ,000 m3 + 6% from ,000 m3

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Production Capacity Source: European Panel Federation

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European OSB Market

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European OSB Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Europe and North American OSB Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Particleboard Production with OSB

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Particleboard Production withOUT OSB

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France MDF Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France MDF Consumption

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France MDF Imports

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Regional Plywood Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Plywood Production

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Plywood Exports

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Certified Forest Products Markets (1/2) Markets are primarily in western Europe 160 million hectares certified worldwide, 95% in the UNECE region 40% of Europes forests certified Weak demand from final consumers Retailer and business-to-business demand strongest

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Certified Forest Products Markets (2/2) Chain of custody the major obstacle now Only a fraction of the wood supplied from certified forests is actually traded as (labelled) CFPs Concern for lack of premium for CFPs and lack of mutual recognition Important communications channel for the softwood industry!

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France UNECE Timber Committee* Recovery of forest products markets in 2003 Overall stability forecast for 2004 Forest law enforcement, governance and trade is major issue confronting sector Wood-based energy policies affecting sector, offering new markets and competition for traditional raw material supply Harvests well below annual growth in UNECE region Promotion of wood necessary to grow market * October 2003

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Outlook to 2010 for the European Forest Sector Source: Ongoing UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector Outlook Studies, 2004.

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Forest Sector Outlook Fastest growth in eastern Europe EU/EFTA remains the largest market Harvests remain below annual growth Standing volume of forests to increase continuously Wood energy increasing with ramifications on traditional small diameter and residue uses Emphasis on biodiversity and conservation

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Consumption: change EU/EFTACEECCIS Sawnwood+18%+59%+159% Panels+41%+110%+250% Paper+56%+178%+225%

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Forest Sector Outlook Improved waste management and emission control Forest sectors role in mitigating climate change recognized CEECs and CIS compete on low labor and material costs. Investment constraints

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Forest Sector Outlook Roundwood prices: Continued downward pressure Low roundwood prices reduce economic viability of forestry Forest sector labor decline

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Forest Sector Outlook Need to expand markets to improve economic viability of sustainable forest management Western Europe remains competitive based on –Marketing skills –Innovation –Technological advances

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Questions / discussion

INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France Ed Pepke Forest Product Marketing Specialist Timber Branch Trade Development and Timber Division United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and Food and Agricultural Organization Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland Tél Fax