1. EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session GENERAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS by Kit Prins Chief, Timber Section UN/ECE Trade Division

2. EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session Structure of presentation Western Europe and North America Eastern Europe and CIS Housing Source: UN/ECE Economic Analysis Division

3. EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session Western Europe: “the short term economic prospects for western Europe are currently better than at any time over the past decade” (UN/ECE July 200) Export-led “virtuous circle” Improved price competitivity due to decline in euro

4. EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session USA Expansion longest on record (since 1991), continues: 2000 will be fourth successive year with growth > 4% Looking for a “soft landing”, but strong growth continues downside risks: unsustainable current account deficit, share price bubble, oil price

5. EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session Transition economies Vigorous growth in 2000, due to import demand (W.Europe), rising commodity prices, payoff from systemic transformation Despite recovery, living standards still low in most countries CIS fastest growing sub region (+ 7.6%) inflation, continued growth in unemployment

6. EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session Estimated GDP growth (% p.a.):

7. EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session Construction US housing starts August 2000 at 1.53 million. Still strong, but signs of slowdown in 2000/2001. W. Europe: moderate growth expected for 2000, stability in 2001 E. Europe: Strong growth in new residential construction in both years

8. EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session Euroconstruct forecasts for new residential construction