Retirement Age Reform: Issues to Consider in Russian Federation

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Presentation transcript:

Retirement Age Reform: Issues to Consider in Russian Federation Zoran Anušić, Senior Economist Moscow, Russian Federation March 30, 2017

Improving Life Expectancy Extends Retirement Period in Russian Federation Current life expectancy for men at statutory retirement age of 60 doesn’t support the case for a higher male retirement age Men are expected to spend an average of 15 years in retirement if they retire at age 60 Female life expectancy at statutory retirement age signals a very high duration of retirement, exceeding 25 years as of 2015 Source: http://www.gks.ru

Male Life Expectancy at Retirement Age Lower than in Other Countries .... Source: World Bank database

... but Female Life Expectancy at Retirement Age is among the Highest Source: World Bank database

Rationale for equalizing retirement ages between men and women Women live longer than men Women end up with lower pensions than men by retiring earlier More than half of women between the ages of 55 and 59 remain economically active, suggesting that they are capable and/or interested in continuing to work beyond age 55 Common „traditional” arguments against: Women „work two jobs” Women raise children and care for elderly and disabled Source: http://www.gks.ru

Narrowing Future Male-Female Retirement Age Gap in OECD Years 11 out of 35 OECD countries currently have a lower retirement age for women But only 2 out of 35 OECD countries plan to maintain a lower retirement age for women in the future (Israel and Switzerland) Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance 2015 + update for Poland amd Slovenia

Treatment of working pensioners in EU countries and Russian Federation Early retirement Regular retirement Full pension allowed Pension reduced (percent of reduction) Pension reduction Bulgaria Belgium (up to 100% income tested) France Denmark (30% income tested) Germany Italy Germany (income tested) Estonia Greece (70% income tested) The Netherlands Spain (reduced if full time work) Portugal Cyprus (taxed by SS contribution) Ireland Latvia Finland Luxembourg (50% income tested) Slovenia (100% income tested) Slovakia Estonia (100%) Cyprus Sweden Greece (100%) Lithuania United Kingdom Czech Republic (100%) Luxembourg Russian Federation Ireland (100%) Malta Latvia (100%) Lithuania (100%) Austria Hungary (100% income tested) Poland Malta (100%) Austria (100% income tested) Romania Romania (100%) Croatia (100% or income tested) Croatia Source: World Bank

Discouraging Early, Encouraging Late Retirement Source: World Bank

Automatic Adjustment of Retirement Age to Life Expectancy Source: Schwan and Sai (2013), European Economy, Economic Papers 512.

Summary conclusions Retirement age of 60 for men currently seems appropriate, but Russian male life expectancy increases, Retirement age for women is on the low side, The international trend has been toward equalization of retirement ages between men and women, Liberal employment rules after retirement encourages earliest possible retirement in Russian Federation, Stimulating late retirement with expensive bonuses keeping low retirement age may not be sustainable, Russian Federation could consider gradually equalizing retirement age for women with that of men and linking it with life expectancy. If general early retirement is introduced, early decrement would need to be at least actuarially neutral.