1. Task force on victimisation 4. Precision requirements
21-22 June 2010

2. Main indicators to be estimated
One year prevalence victimisation rates by type of crime
- for the population 16+,
- and three age group breakdowns (16, 24), (25, 59), (60+)
Countries grouping
21-22 June 2010
Task Force on Victimisation

3. Countries grouping Big countries (population aged 16+ > 5 000 000).
17 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, UK.
Medium size countries (1 500 000,  000).
8 countries Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Slovenia, Slovakia,
Small countries (population <1 500 000 )
5 countries: Cyprus, Estonia, Island, Luxembourg, Malta),
21-22 June 2010
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4. FIRST SCENARIO 8000, 6000, 5000 11 561 318 Euro P=2 P=5 P=10 P=15 P=30
Half length of the confidence interval (with the assumption of SRS) at the 95% confidence level.
16+
16-24
25-59
60+
Big
Medium
Small
Meduim
P=2
0,307
0,354
0,387
1,711
1,809
1,815
0,409
0,468
0,512
0,822
0,798
0,835
P=5
0,478
0,551
0,603
2,664
2,816
2,825
0,637
0,728
0,797
1,279
1,243
1,300
P=10
0,657
0,759
0,830
1,216
1,286
1,290
0,291
0,332
0,364
0,584
0,567
0,593
P=15
0,782
0,903
0,988
4,365
4,614
4,628
1,044
1,193
1,306
2,096
2,036
2,130
P=30
1,004
1,159
1,267
5,602
5,921
5,940
1,340
1,531
1,676
2,690
2,614
2,733
21-22 June 2010
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5. SECOND SCENARIO
7000, 6000, 5000
Euro
Half length of the confidence interval (with the assumption of SRS) at the 95% confidence level.
16+
16-24
25-59
60+
Big
Medium
Small
Meduim
P=2
0.328
0,354
0,387
1.830
1,809
1,815
0.438
0,468
0,512
0.879
0,798
0,835
P=5
0.511
0,551
0,603
2.848
2,816
2,825
0.681
0,728
0,797
1.368
1,243
1,300
P=10
0.703
0,759
0,830
1.300
1,286
1,290
0.311
0,332
0,364
0.624
0,567
0,593
P=15
0.836
0,903
0,988
4.666
4,614
4,628
1.116
1,193
1,306
2.241
2,036
2,130
P=30
1.073
1,159
1,267
5.989
5,921
5,940
1.433
1,531
1,676
2.876
2,614
2,733
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6. THIRD SCENARIO
10 000, 6000, 5000
Euro
Half length of the confidence interval (with the assumption of SRS) at the 95% confidence level.
16+
16-24
25-59
60+
Big
Medium
Small
Meduim
P=2
0.328
0,354
0,387
1.830
1,809
1,815
0.438
0,468
0,512
0.879
0,798
0,835
P=5
0.511
0,551
0,603
2.848
2,816
2,825
0.681
0,728
0,797
1.368
1,243
1,300
P=10
0.703
0,759
0,830
1.300
1,286
1,290
0.311
0,332
0,364
0.624
0,567
0,593
P=15
0.836
0,903
0,988
4.666
4,614
4,628
1.116
1,193
1,306
2.241
2,036
2,130
P=30
1.073
1,159
1,267
5.989
5,921
5,940
1.433
1,531
1,676
2.876
2,614
2,733
21-22 June 2010
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7. 1-3 summary. Only the big countries sample changes
2nd Euro
1st Euro
3rd Euro
Half length of the confidence interval (with the assumption of SRS) at the 95% confidence level.
16+
16-24
25-59
60+
2nd
1st
3rd
7000
8000
10000
P=2
0.328
0,307
0.274
1.830
1,711
1.530
0.438
0,409
0.366
0.879
0,822
0.735
P=5
0.511
0,478
0.427
2.848
2,664
2.382
0.681
0,637
0.570
1.368
1,279
1.144
P=10
0.703
0,657
0.588
1.300
1,216
1.088
0.311
0,291
0.260
0.624
0,584
0.522
P=15
0.836
0,782
0.700
4.666
4,365
3.903
1.116
1,044
0.934
2.241
2,096
1.875
P=30
1.073
1,004
0.898
5.989
5,602
5.009
1.433
1,340
1.198
2.876
2,690
2.406
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8. SUMMARY
if the prevalence rate for the subgroup is higher than 10% the quality of this indicator not sufficient/poor?
oversampling of the population of may be desirable
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9. SUMMARY
The improvement of quality of indicators goes slowly with the increase of the sample size,
stratified sample- the quality proposed will be achieved with the smaller sample, but
countries having clusters more efforts bigger sample needed to “compensate” the design effect.
the date is 2013,
possible estimation errors for costs (number of missing values),
oversampling of the population may be needed,
the safest and most cost efficient option for the quality requirements seems to be scenario one ?
21-22 June 2010
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10. Precision requirements
0.8 a maximum half length of confidence interval of the indicator on prevalence rate per type of crime for the population aged 16+.
1.4 a maximum half length of confidence interval for the estimated percentage of victims, per type of crime, for the following population breakdowns:
16-24 years, years, 60 years and over.
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