Claude Villeneuve Professeur titulaire Directeur de la Chaire en éco-conseil Département des sciences fondamentales Université du Québec à Chicoutimi Conférence au Congrès canadien dinvestissement responsable Montréal le 18 juin 2012 Responsible investment and climate change Whats different?

Towards an uncertain future In the last forty years, science made the general deterioration of the global environment an undisputable evidence. It threatens mankinds ability to keep developing on the same path – Biodiversity losses – Climate change – Ozone depletion – Ocean acidification – Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles acceleration

World environmental assessment Things are getting worse 550 pages 90 indicators only 4 has shown significant progress Sustainability issues Actual international efforts are inefficient

Economic growth and energy

World primary energy sources Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources

Keep growing! Source Sell Buy

Sources of anthropogenic GHG (Source: GIEC, GT3, 2007) Émissions anthropiques en Gt CO 2 éq

Global mean temperature trends

Source NASA: (février 2010)

Outcomes? Higher variability and weather extremes («wild weather») Higher temperature means Accelerated ice melting Sea rise Water cycle perturbations (flash floods, drought) Change in seasonal behavior and migration of animals and plants

Future climate Température moyenne, avec le modèle canadien [scénario IS92a (2xCO 2 en 2065)] ( Service météorologique du Canada, Environnement Canada ) par rapport à par rapport à ,5xCO 2 2xCO par rapport à Actuellement, cest le scénario le plus plausible! 3xCO 2

Arctic sea ice

Upcoming global warming « We already have in bank a 2,4˚C global warming in the XXIst century even with the most ambitious GHG reduction programs, it is unavoidable. ». (Ramanhatan, V et Y. Feng (2008) On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenge ahead PNAS, 105:58: « The Copenhagen accord is not going to influence significantly the GHG emission patterns towards 2020 » OECD Environmental trends, 2012

Energy transition? Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources Losses 40%

Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources Losses 35%

Whats up, Doc? Global warming, sea level rise and climate extremes will impact worlds economy in an impredictible way. – Agriculture – Forests – Transportation – Real estate – Tourism – Energy – Trade – Investment

Responsible investments? Widening investors responsibility to include stakeholders – Reducing climate risks – Addressing fundamentals of change – Catching climate opportunities – Helping capitalize on the multiple benefits of sustainability

Risks Financial e.g. CDP and investors Commercial e.g. Carbon footprint labels Hazards e.g. sea level rise extreme events Regulations e.g. carbon taxes Procurement e.g. Energy prices

Opportunities Renewable energy Low carbon production Energy and material efficient technologies Technological innovations

What does sustainability mean? Local vs global Now vs tomorrow but what about environmental «debt»? Intergenerational equity 7 +2 billions OCDE drafters? How to invest in our common future?

Standing questions Climate change is unavoidable. We must adapt but how? At what pace? How can investors take into account long tem issues? What is their power on multinational corporations? What can be your contribution to change? How can it make a difference?