An Introduction to the Climate Change Explorer Tool: Locally Downscaled GCM Data for Thailand and Vietnam Greater Mekong Sub-region – Core Environment Programme Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces of PR China, Thailand and Vietnam 24-26 February 2009 Hanoi, Vietnam

The Climate Change Explorer Tool http://wikiadapt. org/index. php 2

What is the CCE tool? Climate Change Explorer Station-level data for control and future conditions (A: 2046-2065) Empirical (statistically) downscaled from 8-11 of the 24 IPCC 4AR Global Circulation Models (daily mean temp and rainfall for 10 years) Model output is for A2 socio-economic scenario 3

Why CCE? Inherent uncertainty in climate models. Can’t say which model is ‘best’. Mean ensemble forecast may give false sense of certainty of range of possible changes GCM projections not very useful for planning adaptation! (especially in SIDS) CCE allows non-expert users to explore the range of uncertainty in science – with the possibility of choosing options that are robust against a range of futures.

Who is the CCE for? Today’s user: analysts with some knowledge of climate dynamics and model outputs (not modelers, necessarily) Plans: User targets based on various levels of analysis Rapid screening - is the decision sensitive to the envelope? Thresholds in outcomes - does the mapping of potential futures indicate critical thresholds that motivate a specific adaptation action? Probabilistic analysis of expected outcomes - does the decision depend on the expected distribution of risks? Is there an outcome variable that is critical to the decision (cost-benefit ratio)?

What can you do with the CCE tool? Compare results of the different GCM models for a particular location Packages this data by generating customized analytical and visualization Explore climate variables relevant to their adaptation options Designed to simplify the tasks associated with the extraction, query and analysis of climate information Allow users to address issues of uncertainty in devising policy and strategies and in implementing actions. 6

Components of the CCE tool

Data Access and Specifications Local (station-scale) response to the large scale forcing as shown on the GCM To include all models with daily archived data from the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC Updates accessible Currently distributed in daily and monthly time series (monthly means for all models), and derivative statistics Spatially smoothed- reflective of the regional response at each location.

What does the CCE Do? Examine seasonal, multi-annual and spread of climate behavior Import, download, graph, difference the data (look at expected changes) Compare models to each other Sort data into seasons and calculate some attributes about

Total monthly precipitation anomaly Examine seasonal, multi-annual and spread of climate behavior Import, download, graph, difference the data (look at expected changes) Look for agreement/ disagreement Envelope ECHAM5 0.00 0.20 0.60 1.00 1.40 -0.20 -0.60 -1.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Daily rainfall anomaly for Bamako Station, 2045 to 2065 GISS CCCMACGCM Model agreement Model disagreement January February March April May June July August September October November December Multi-model Anomalies 0.00 2.00 4.00 -2.00 -4.00 -6.00 -8.00 -10.00 -12.00 6.00 12.00 18.00 24.00 30.00 -18.00 -24.00 Total monthly precipitation anomaly

Data Available and Plans for 2009 http://www.ipcc-data.org/ Data available for 34 weather stations in Thailand and 19 in Vietnam

Training- a central goal ToT Wiki And others

Thank you.. www.weADAPT.org