Asish Sen Director Meteorological Centre, Patna SOUTH-WEST MONSOON : 2016 Asish Sen Director Meteorological Centre, Patna

Southwest Monsoon Rainfall in Bihar (2002-2015) x

MONSOON FORECAST : 2016 (Whole Country) HIGHLIGHTS Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% (with a model error of ±4%) Region wise, seasonal rainfall:- 108% of LPA over North-West India, 113% of LPA over Central India, 113% of LPA over South Peninsula 94% of LPA over North-East India (with a model error of ± 8 %). The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 107% during July and 104% during August ( with a model error of ± 9 %.)

Region wise Probabilistic Monsoon Forecast 2016   NW India Central South Northeast India Peninsula Rainfall Category Range (% of LPA) Below <92 <94 <93 <95 Normal 92-108 94-106 93-107 95-105 Above >108 >106 >107 >105

State wise Monsoon Rainfall Forecast : 2016

PROGRESS OF SW MONSOON 2016

DISTRICTWISE SEASONAL TOTAL RAINFALL (01- 21 JUNE 2016) DISTRICTS ACTUAL NORMAL DEP MM % ARARIA 134.9 182.8 -26 ARWAL 35.8 58.8 -39 AURANGABAD 50.4 64.2 -21 BANKA 192.2 86.7 122 BEGUSARAI 92.2 -61 BHABUA 33 61 -46 BHAGALPUR 42.8 122.1 -65 BHOJPUR 18.4 58.6 -69 BUXAR 96.5 62.7 54 DARBHANGA 49.7 94.3 -47 EAST CHAMPARAN 73.5 99.6 GAYA 36.6 60.5 -40 GOPALGANJ 63.5 96.8 -34 JAHANABAD 32.3 65.2 -50 JAMUI 25.7 84.3 -70 KATIHAR 37 131.9 -72 KHAGARIA 17.1 110.9 -85 KISHANGANJ 205.2 238.6 -14 LAKHISARAI 29.2 100.5 -71 MADHEPURA 83.6 138.4 MADHUBANI 123 115.6 6 MONGHYR 0.4 -99 MUZAFFARPUR 65.9 94.7 -30 NALANDA 27.9 63.3 -56 NAWADA 8.1 70.1 -88 PATNA 19.3 69.4 PURNEA 79.1 161 -51 ROHTAS 28.6 -23 SAHARSA 47.5 147.7 -68 SAMASTIPUR 42 99.8 -58 SARAN 21.3 73.8 SHEIKHPURA 69.8 74.7 -7 SHEOHAR 13.8 -89 SITAMARHI 57.5 -53 SIWAN 28.7 72.5 -60 SUPAUL 122.4 140 -13 VAISHALI 37.3 80.4 -54 WEST CHAMPARAN 101.4 142.3 -29 BIHAR 60.8 99.4

Seasonal Total Rainfall (1st to 21st June)

Mean Rainfall Forecast for Last Week of June

Mean Rainfall Forecast for First Week of July

Mean Rainfall Forecast for Second Week of July

Flood Risk Zones in India

Flood Risk Zones in Bihar

Disaster Preparedness Knowledge and Preparation are the keys to survival in the event of a catastrophe

Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination Monitoring of precursors to natural events. Conceptual framework concerning Early Warning. NO Forecasting: Will there be an event? Early Warning Systems (EWS) operate on a very simple operational framework. Precursors to events are monitored on a continuous basis. Data is analyzed to generate a forecast. If there is a forecast of a large event, a warning is issued. In the modern framework of EW the emergency committees will begin actions as proposed in the emergency plans. YES Issue a Warning or an Alert. Initiate actions according to emergency plans

Different Forecasts and Warning Systems of IMD Long Range Monsoon Forecast Regular Weather Bulletin City Weather Forecast Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for River Basins Cyclone Alert and Warning System Short Range Heavy Rainfall Warning Heat and Cold Wave Warning Fog Warning Radar Based Now-cast for Thunder Squall

Cyclone Alert and Warning System of IMD Monitoring for Precursor a Weather Satellite Data and Imageries Weather Radar Observations Surface and Upper Air Data ON Will there be Alert/warning ? Weather Analysis and Numerical Modelling YES Issue of Alert/Warning Forecast Track and Intensity of Cyclone

Flood Warning System of IMD and CWC IMD CWC River Guage Network Data Nation-wide Surface Observatory Network Meteorological Satellite Observation Weather Radar Network Hydrological Modelling Numerical Modelling River Basin wise Quantitative Rainfall Forecast Flood Forecast

Weather Alert/Warning Dissemination NDMA Airports Sea Ports Weather Forecast Centre (IMD) State Disaster Managers Satellite based Warning Dissemination System Radio/TV/Press

Annual +1.41 +0.02* * -0.01 Season Mean Max Temp Trends in o C/ year SEASONAL CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS OF BIHAR Season Mean Max Temp Trends in o C/ year Mean Min Temp Trends Mean Temp Trends Mean Diurnal Temp Range Trends Rainfall trends In mm /year Winter -0.01* * +0.02* No trend -0.02 -0.06 Summer -0.02* +0.01* -0.04* +0.59* Monsoon -0.03* +1.11 Post monsoon +0.01 +0.11 Annual +0.02* * -0.01 +1.41

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