1. Southwest Monsoon Forecast 2019

2. JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER
MONSOON 2019 FORECAST
93% OF LPA (+/-5%) BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL
JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER
(LPA=887 mm)
LPA (Long Period Average)
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3. 15% Drought 30% Normal 55% Below Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON
JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (JJAS)
15% Drought
30% Normal
0% Above Normal
0% Excess
55% Below Normal
EXCESS
ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL
BELOW NORMAL
DROUGHT
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4. MONSOON FORECAST 2019 289 mm 261 mm 266 mm 263 mm 173 mm 164 mm 171 mm
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5. 10% Above Normal 15% Normal 75% Below Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON
JUNE
77% OF LPA
NORMAL IS 164 mm
10% Above Normal
15% Normal
75% Below Normal
EXCESS
ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL
BELOW NORMAL
DROUGHT
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6. 15% Above Normal 35% Normal 55% Below Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON
JULY
91% OF LPA
NORMAL IS 289 mm
15% Above Normal
35% Normal
55% Below Normal
EXCESS
ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL
BELOW NORMAL
DROUGHT
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7. 30% Below Normal 55% Normal 15% Above Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON
AUGUST
102% OF LPA
NORMAL IS 261 mm
30% Below Normal
55% Normal
15% Above Normal
EXCESS
ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL
BELOW NORMAL
DROUGHT
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8. 30% Below Normal 55% Normal 15% Above Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON
SEPTEMBER
99% OF LPA
NORMAL IS 173 mm
30% Below Normal
55% Normal
15% Above Normal
EXCESS
ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL
BELOW NORMAL
DROUGHT
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9. El Niño and La Niña Forecast
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10. MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (JJAS)
36N
33N
30N
27N
24N
21N
18N
15N
12N 9N
Rainfall Departure: -7%
East and Central India along with some pockets of South Peninsula could be at risk
Good rains for Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Coastal Andhra Pradesh
69E E E E E 84E E E E E E
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11. MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
JUNE
36N
33N
30N
27N
24N
21N
18N
15N
12N 9N
Rainfall Departure: 23%
Deficit rains for the country
Below normal rains for Central and East India
Monson yet to advance in Northwest India
69E E E E E 84E E E E E E
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12. MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
JULY
36N
33N
30N
27N
24N
21N
18N
15N
12N 9N
Rainfall Departure: -9%
Below normal rains for central and western parts of the country
Normal rains for South India
69E E E E E 84E E E E E E
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13. MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
AUGUST
36N
33N
30N
27N
24N
21N
18N
15N
12N 9N
Rainfall Departure: 2%
Good rains for central parts, Western Ghats and Northeast India
Below normal rains for East India and northwest plains
69E E E E E 84E E E E E E
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14. MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
SEPTEMBER
36N
33N
30N
27N
24N
21N
18N
15N
12N 9N
Rainfall Departure: -1%
Normal rains for the country
Above normal rains for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh
69E E E E E 84E E E E E E
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15. HIGH RISK DISTRICTS ANDHRA PRADESH BIHAR Bihar Siwan Bihar Gopalganj
Bihar Kaimur (Bhabua)
Bihar Saran
Bihar Lakhisarai
Bihar Jamui
Bihar Aurangabad
Bihar Patna
Bihar Banka
Bihar Arwal
Bihar Pashchim Champaran
Bihar Madhubani
Bihar Purnia
Bihar Rohtas
Bihar Araria
Bihar Katihar
Bihar Muzaffarpur
Bihar Sheikhpura
Bihar Nalanda
Andhra Pradesh Kurnool
Andhra Pradesh Krishna
Andhra Pradesh Guntur
Andhra Pradesh Sri Potti Sriramulu Nellore
Andhra Pradesh Chittoor
Andhra Pradesh Anantapur
Andhra Pradesh Y.S.R.
BIHAR
Bihar Vaishali
Bihar Samastipur
Bihar Bhojpur
Bihar Supaul
Bihar Darbhanga
Bihar Madhepura
Bihar Nawada
Bihar Khagaria
Bihar Munger
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16. HIGH RISK DISTRICTS JHARKHAND Bihar Sheohar Jharkhand Simdega
Bihar Kishanganj
Bihar Buxar
Bihar Begusarai
Bihar Purba Champaran
Bihar Jehanabad
Bihar Bhagalpur
Bihar Sitamarhi
Bihar Saharsa
Bihar Gaya
Jharkhand Simdega
Jharkhand Pashchimi Singhbhum
Jharkhand Ranchi
Jharkhand Dhanbad
Jharkhand Palamu
Jharkhand Chatra
Jharkhand Bokaro
Jharkhand Jamtara
Jharkhand Gumla
Jharkhand Purbi Singhbhum
Jharkhand Latehar
Jharkhand Saraikela-Kharsawan
Jharkhand Godda
JHARKHAND
Jharkhand Giridih
Jharkhand Pakur
Jharkhand Kodarma
Jharkhand Lohardaga
Jharkhand Garhwa
Jharkhand Ramgarh
Jharkhand Khunti
Jharkhand Dumka
Jharkhand Hazaribagh
Jharkhand Deoghar
Jharkhand Sahibganj
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17. HIGH RISK DISTRICTS KARNATAKA Karnataka Kodagu Karnataka Dharwad
Karnataka Chitradurga
Karnataka Raichur
Karnataka Chikkaballapura
Karnataka Bangalore
Karnataka Yadgir
Karnataka Haveri
Karnataka Dakshina Kannada
Karnataka Bangalore Rural
Karnataka Udupi
Karnataka Mandya
Karnataka Uttara Kannada
Karnataka Gulbarga
Karnataka Ramanagara
Karnataka Kolar
Karnataka Gadag
Karnataka Bijapur
Karnataka Dharwad
Karnataka Bidar
Karnataka Shimoga
Karnataka Mysore
Karnataka Bagalkot
Karnataka Davanagere
Karnataka Tumkur
Karnataka Hassan
Karnataka Bellary
Karnataka Chikmagalur
Karnataka Koppal
Karnataka Chamarajanagar
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18. HIGH RISK DISTRICTS MADHYA PRADESH Madhya Pradesh Narsimhapur
Madhya Pradesh Dhar
Madhya Pradesh Sehore
Madhya Pradesh Neemuch
Madhya Pradesh Raisen
Madhya Pradesh Chhindwara
Madhya Pradesh Tikamgarh
Madhya Pradesh Jhabua
Madhya Pradesh Mandsaur
Madhya Pradesh Singrauli
Madhya Pradesh Alirajpur
Madhya Pradesh Mandla
Madhya Pradesh Jabalpur
Madhya Pradesh Rajgarh
Madhya Pradesh Dindori
Madhya Pradesh Seoni
Madhya Pradesh Hoshangabad
Madhya Pradesh Panna
Madhya Pradesh Barwani
Madhya Pradesh Harda
Madhya Pradesh Khandwa (East Nimar)
Madhya Pradesh Chhatarpur
Madhya Pradesh Bhopal
Madhya Pradesh Vidisha
Madhya Pradesh Dewas
Madhya Pradesh Sagar
Madhya Pradesh Burhanpur
Madhya Pradesh Khargone (West Nimar)
Madhya Pradesh Indore
Madhya Pradesh Betul
Madhya Pradesh Ashoknagar
Madhya Pradesh Agar Malwa
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19. HIGH RISK DISTRICTS MAHARASHTRA Maharashtra Bid Maharashtra Nagpur
Maharashtra Solapur
Maharashtra Gadchiroli
Maharashtra Jalgaon
Maharashtra Gondiya
Maharashtra Jalna
Maharashtra Washim
Maharashtra Nagpur
Maharashtra Buldana
Maharashtra Latur
Maharashtra Osmanabad
Maharashtra Wardha
Maharashtra Amravati
Maharashtra Akola
Maharashtra Aurangabad
Maharashtra Nandurbar
Maharashtra Ahmadnagar
Maharashtra Dhule
Maharashtra Bhandara
Maharashtra Chandrapur
Maharashtra Nanded
Maharashtra Parbhani
Maharashtra Hingoli
Maharashtra Yavatmal
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20. HIGH RISK DISTRICTS WEST BENGAL West Bengal North Twenty Four Parganas
West Bengal Nadia
West Bengal Maldah
West Bengal Haora
West Bengal Purba Medinipur
West Bengal Dakshin Dinajpur
West Bengal Hugli
West Bengal Barddhaman
West Bengal Puruliya
West Bengal Alipurduar
West Bengal Koch Bihar
West Bengal Bankura
West Bengal Kolkatta
West Bengal Uttar Dinajpur
West Bengal Jalpaiguri
West Bengal Paschim Medinipur
West Bengal Birbhum
West Bengal South Twenty Four Parganas
West Bengal Murshidabad
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21. THANK YOU

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