EF5: A hydrologic model for prediction, reanalysis and capacity building Zachary Flamig Postdoctoral Scholar.

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Presentation transcript:

EF5: A hydrologic model for prediction, reanalysis and capacity building Zachary Flamig Postdoctoral Scholar

Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting Inputs Model Outputs Flamig, Z. L., H. Vergara, R. Clark III, Y. Hong, and J. J. Gourley, 2016: EF5: Version 1.0. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.59123 Snowmelt Simulation options: 1. SNOW-17 Routing Simulation options: 1. Linear reservoir 2. Kinematic wave Precipitation Native data options: 1. MRMS 2. GPM/TMPA RT 3. Any GeoTIFF QPE QPF Surface Runoff Simulation options: 1. CREST 2. SAC-SMA 3. Hydrophobic Inundation Simulation options: 1. Mass conservation Evapotranspiration Native data options: 1. GeoTIFF PET 2. GeoTIFF temperatures Outputs Type options: 1. Streamflow 2. Recurrence interval 3. Water depth 4. Soil moisture Parameter Optimization Type options: 1. DREAM 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting 19,815 Lines of code 1,189 Total water balance (6%) 919 Total routing (5%) 89% “Glue” code! Configuration I/O 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor QPE (MRMS) Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) MRMS/Q3 Rainfall Observations 1km2/2 min Stormscale Distributed Hydrologic Model Framework -1km2/10 min Flooding Impacts Probabilistic Forecast Products on the Flash Flood Impacts and Magnitudes (70% chance of hazardous road flooding) Simulated surface water flows and return period 150 200 First distributed hydrologic modeling framework to operate at the flash flood scale in real-time across the conterminous USA 250 mm/10” 20 fatalities 10-11 June 2010, Albert Pike Rec Area, Arkansas

Comparison with National Water Model NWM 2.6 million forecast points Single physics solution Calibrated FLASH 10.2 million forecast points Multiple water balance physics A priori parameters 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

Comparison with National Water Model 01:00 00:50 00:40 Initialization Time 00:30 00:20 FLASH NWM 00:10 00:00 00:00 01:00 12:00 18:00 Forecast time (Valid Time) 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

Hydrologic Reanalysis EF5 with CREST/SAC-SMA/HP & Kinematic Wave Routing Apriori parameters 0.01x0.01˚ spatial resolution over CONUS 5-minute time steps MRMS precipitation rate as forcing Kept daily values Maximum Q Time of maximum Q Maximum unit Q Minimum soil moisture Kept complete basin outlet time series for gauged basins <1000 km2 2002-2011 period of record for MRMS forcing 2001 used as warmup period 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

Observed and simulated hydrographs from Caddo River near Caddo Gap, AR Observed and simulated hydrographs from Caddo River near Caddo Gap, AR. The contributing basin area at this point is 352 km2. 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

Observed and simulated hydrographs from Little Missouri River near Langley, AR. The contributing basin area at this point is 177 km2. 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

Simulation Validation CREST water balance 4,366 USGS gauges 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

Simulation Validation CREST water balance 4,366 USGS gauges 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

Reanalysis http://flash.ou.edu/reanalysis Produced daily from 2002-2011: Maximum Streamflow Maximum Unit Streamflow Time of day of Maximum Streamflow Minimum Soil Moisture 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

EF5 Capacity Building Windhoek, Namibia 2015 Puebla, Mexico 2015 Nairobi, Kenya 2017 Villahermosa, Mexico 2015 Windhoek, Namibia 2016 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017

http://ef5.ou.edu Reanalysis http://ef5.ou.edu/videos http://flash.ou.edu/reanalysis Produced daily from 2002-2011: Maximum Streamflow Maximum Unit Streamflow Time of day of Maximum Streamflow Minimum Soil Moisture http://ef5.ou.edu http://ef5.ou.edu/videos 23 May 2017 CSDMS 2017