ISIS, International Security, and the Global Economy Stephen Long, Ph.D. University of Richmond

What is ISIS/ISIL/IS? 2001-2004: al-Zarqawi’s Herat group 2004-2006: al-Qaeda-allied AQI 2006-2010: al-Masri’s Islamic State of Iraq 2010-today: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) “Waist-ing” away in Camp Bucca

How Strong is ISIS? CIA estimates up to 31,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria (vs. al-Qaeda’s 3,000 peak) Control over oil fields and small refineries in northern Iraq and northern Syria, exporting $2 to 3 million per day through Turkish oil traders $2 billion in total assets ISIS can pay foreign fighters $1,000 to $4,500 per month

What Does It Want?

Can It Succeed? YES: NO: Incredibly oppressive in areas of control Currently control 13,000 square miles (about the size of Belgium) Wealthiest non-state, armed entity in modern history NO: Incredibly oppressive in areas of control No electricity, taxing heavily, seizing bank accounts, making other religions illegal Most fighters are not local, creating resentment in the population

Source: Institute for the Study of War “ISIS Sanctuary Map,” May 25, 2016

Why Is ISIS So Brutal? Iraq’s long history of internal violence Recruiting from the very bottom of the socioeconomic distribution Issues of class and urban/rural life entangled with religion “Power without responsibility”

Why Us? We “broke” Iraq and Syria We armed ISIS (by mistake) The Iraqi Army is still too weak to defeat ISIS, tied down in Baghdad Arab air power is symbolic Turks are mostly staying out Most anti-ISIS ground troops are Kurds Alternative intervener is Iran American credibility

Why Us?

U.S. Strategy Air strikes Uncomfortable coalition of allies Special forces operators Playing Russian roulette

Challenges ISIS has superior unity of effort ISIS requires minimal effort to keep allied forces on defensive Prioritization of Sunni-Shia split in Iraq European desperation to end refugee crisis

Russian Roulette ISW 2016

Economic Effects Decline in oil prices has weakened the Iraqi state, which relies on oil for 90% of export revenues Issuing bonds through Citigroup and DB and borrowing from central bank reserves, all while decreasing investment in oil output (Shell)

Global Economic Effects Systemic factors driving oil prices: Saudis pricing US shale producers out of business, OPEC going along with this strategy Primary ISIS-induced risk is in the long term Ungoverned spaces in Syria and Iraq Potential escalation of ground war Export of trained fighters to Europe and elsewhere increases terrorism risk Counter-value targeting could threaten shipping