MRBB Technical Committee Update to the MRBB MRBB Meeting 41 Edmonton, Alberta May 31, 2012

Presentation Structure Background Modeling workshop Preparation Deliverables Results Implementation Current Status of Model Key Messages Workplanning

Background July 2011 - MRBB Technical Committee proposed following Workplan: Fall 2011: Training session hosted by Alberta Environment.  Fall 2011 - Summer 2012: Technical staff will use the Hydrology Model with the assistance of a Users Manual. Summer 2012: Technical users meet to review progress, share model results and knowledge, and develop next steps for refinement of the model. Summer 2012: Use the model to assess various bilateral arrangements. Summer 2012 - Summer 2013: Technical users continue refining the model and develop procedures to incorporate Peace-Athabasca Delta water levels. Summer 2013 - Spring 2014: Technical users develop procedures to operationalize the model. Summer 2014: Technical users use the model to provide input to the next SOAER. Technical Committee was directed to enact first three steps and report. This report focuses on first two steps. (No need to read entire workplan – focus on first three steps) Budget assigned for 2011-2012: $25 K

Step 1: Modeling Workshop Preparation Technical Committee: Defined Workshop Objectives. Developed Workshop Terms of Reference. Retained Workshop Instructor/Facilitator. Identified workshop participants from BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and AANDC-NWT. Workshop held Dec 13 - 14, 2011.

Step 1: Modeling Workshop Deliverables Workshop Deliverables included: Workshop facilitation. Instruction on how to use model. Model files provided to participants. Tutorial Exercise. User Manual. Workshop Report based on Instructor and Participant Feedback. Contract value: $17,560

Step 1: Modeling Workshop Results Workshop Feedback was generally positive. Participants had the following recommendations: Extend upper limit of model outflow from Great Slave Lake. Update the WATFLOOD input database to include WSC data up to 2010 for all sites. Add available station data for long term sites that were not included initially in the WATFLOOD input database.  Include additional "Add/Withdraw" sites into the model. Add water level output. Option to limit the downstream model boundary to reduce the time needed to run a scenario (applies to Peace-Athabasca-Slave component only). Organize a separate workshop for WATFLOOD Model. Model was general well constructed Issues identified: Often took a long time to run simulations Some software bugs Water level outputs, particularly for Lake Athabasca and Great Slave Lake, would be useful for some users Some additional flow withdrawal locations are required for certain modeling applications Hydraulic impacts of the Peace/Slave River on flows into and out of Lake Athabasca are not considered in the model formulation, which is adequate for long-term impacts but may be more important in other scenarios. WATFLOOD generated inflows could be the largest source of error in the model and some users may wish to provide their own simulated inflows; the ability to easily interchange flow datasets would be useful (this would also assist with simulating climate change scenarios). More detailed analysis is required to examine the model performance when propagating “pulse flows” along the Peace River downstream of the hydropower generating stations; input data resolution and time step may be factors requiring some adjustment if the model is to be applied for this type of scenario. File management of simulation results is not necessarily intuitive; some users forgetting to save their output files found that when making changes and clicking “Run Model” again, lost some of their previous model results. The Model is not presently able to compare multiple simulation results in the interface.

Step 1: Modeling Workshop Implementation Technical Committee implemented recommendations: AANDC-NWT developed a contract to incorporate additional add/withdrawal sites and extend upper limit of Great Slave Lake Outflow (March 31, 2012). Secretariat contacted Canadian Hydrometric Service about updating WATFLOOD data. Technical Committee amended existing contract to develop Peace-Athabasca-Slave Component, revise User Manual to incorporate these changes and provide updated version of River 1D model (due July 13, 2012). Existing MRBB contract now $25,000. Of this amount, $6,790 spent in fiscal year 2012-2013 CHC did intend to update data, currently discussing whether MRBB needs to provide resources.

Step Two: Technical staff will use the Hydrology Model British Columbia staff have not had the opportunity to run the model due to capacity issues and other priorities. Most Alberta staff have other priorities they have been required to focus on. AANDC-NWT staff have other priorities they have been required to focus on. Staff in Saskatchewan have focused primarily on the level of Lake Athabasca. The model predicts annual minimums well. Peaks were substantially overestimated. Staff have not yet had the opportunity to perform a diagnostic to determine the source of the discrepancy.

Lake Athabasca Simulations

Key Messages to the MRBB Work is progressing in the right direction. More work is required for the Technical Committee to improve confidence in model results and understand model limitations. Technical Committee needs the active support of Board Members to ensure that model evaluation is a priority for users.

Workplanning The Technical Committee sees value in getting users together to compare results (implement Step 3 of workplan). Target Date: before mid-September. Budgetary Requirements: Retain modeler to address users’ questions and facilitate workshop. Venue logistics for workshop. Cost Estimate: $25,000.

Workplanning Workshop Participants agreed that a better understanding of WATFLOOD model would be beneficial. Target Date: December or January. Budgetary Requirements: Workshop Instructor. Venue Logistics for Workshop. Cost Estimate: $15,000. Want to ensure that users have confidence in model results before bilateral negotiation conclude – one workplan goal is to use as a tool for these negotiations (Workplan Step 4)

Workplanning Update WATFLOOD data to 2010 or 2011 in Mackenzie River Basin. Target Date: As Soon As Possible. Budgetary Requirements: Contractor to update data. Cost estimate: $10,000. WATFLOOD data currently available up to 2005. Climate from 2005 to 2010 was anomalous and having available data closer to the present day will improve confidence in model results. Total ask: $6,790 already committed.

Questions? Comments?