Jeremy Sage, Eric Jessup & Ken Casavant Investing in Connectivity: A Geographic Argument for the Importance of Agricultural Freight Flows Jeremy Sage, Eric Jessup & Ken Casavant 91st Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International June 30, 2016

Why Should We Care About Freight Movement? Indicator of Economic Activity – Output, Jobs, Trade Efficient flows reduce costs Prioritizing Investment in Infrastructure MAP-21 FAST Act Roadway Damage Freight flows not easy to obtain at local or sub-regional level

Understanding Freight Flows Freight Analysis Framework (FAF3, FAF4) What it Does: “The FAF provides a comprehensive national picture of freight flows, trends, and a baseline forecast to support policy studies. The FAF informs states and localities about their major trading partners and the volumes and sources of traffic passing through their jurisdictions at the corridor level.” What it Does Not Do: “The FAF does not provide local detail or temporal (seasonal, daily, or hourly) variation in freight flows that are typically necessary to support project planning. While statistical methods exist that allow analysts to disaggregate FAF data from FAF regions to counties or smaller areas, FHWA has not measured any of these methods to establish estimates of reliability or accuracy. FAF estimates of truck tonnage and number of trucks on the network, particularly in regions with multiple routes or significant local traffic between major centers of freight activity, should be supplemented with local data to support local applications.” --FHWA

Understanding Freight Flows Commodity Flow Survey Shipper based survey that is a part of the Economic Census Does not cover Agriculture (NAICS 11)

Understanding Freight Flows – Sub-Regional Commodity Flow Survey – Freight Analysis Framework Intercept Surveys Traffic Counts

Washington Freight Mobility Plan Developed and Defined Freight Economic Corridors Based on the Freight Goods Transportation System (FGTS) Freight and Goods Transportation System (FGTS): Roadway Classification T-1 = More than 10 Million Tons per Year T-2 = 4-10 Million Tons per Year T-3 = 0.3-4 Million Tons per Year T-4 = 100,000 – 300,000 Tons per Year T-5 = at least 20,000 tons in 60 days and Less than 100,000 Tons per Year  

Washington State Freight Economic Corridors Statewide: To-and-from T1 and T2 truck routes and strategic U.S. defense facilities Over-dimensional truck freight routes that connect the state’s significant intermodal facilities to the T1 and T2 highway system  In urban areas:  To-and-from the Interstate system and the (1) closest major airport with air freight service, (2) marine terminals, ports, other intermodal facilities (3) warehouse/industrial lands From high-volume urban freight intermodal facilities to other urban intermodal facilities, e.g. from the Port of Seattle to the BNSF rail yard in Seattle

Washington State Freight Economic Corridors In rural areas:  To-and-from state freight hubs located within five miles of T1 and T2 highways; freight hubs are defined as: (1) agricultural processing centers (2) distribution centers (3) intermodal facilities (4) industrial/commercial zoned land Apples; Milk; Wheat; Potato; Beef/Calves Routes that carry one million tons during three months of the year (reflecting seasonality) of agricultural, timber or other resource industry sector goods

Washington State Freight Economic Corridors

4th highest volume of rural centerline miles in the state. 1,461 of its 1,899 miles of rural roadway are unpaved (2nd most of any county). More bridges than any other county (251 County owned). 56 are considered Functionally Obsolete or Structurally Deficient.

Whitman County at a Glance: 2012 Census of Agriculture Wheat (Winter & Spring) County Total Percentage Number of Farms 523 1,195 44% Average Farm Size 844 1,067 - Total Farm Acres 441,417 1,275,110 35% Wheat Yield (Bu) 32,943,471 Bushels per Acre 75

How does Wheat move in the PNW? >80% bound for export. 499 Acres 13 Acres Per Truck ~ 38 Trucks ~ 988 tons How does Wheat move in the PNW? >80% bound for export.

Truck Movements are Very Localized Nearly 3,000 Wheat farms in WA, but less than 30 major suppliers and buyers (typically Co-ops); Own elevators throughout the region, located to readily access rail and waterways; Elevators attract from a range of 20-50 miles; Some larger elevators may have slightly larger catchment.

Multimodal Movements Standard Modal Freight Unit Capacities Standard Cargo Capacity Highway - Truck 26 tons Rail - Bulk Car 111 tons Barge - Dry Bulk 1,750 tons Equivalent Units Mode of Transportation Equivalence By Mode 1 Barge 16 Rail Cars 68 Trucks Cost per Ton-Mile (cents) 0.72 2.24 26.61 Ton-Mile per Gallon of Fuel 616 478 150

Allocating Truck Movements to Roadways: The Transportation Problem Identify the most efficient way (least cost) to service a set of destinations from a set of origins. Field Based Origins Elevator Based Destinations Uses the Simplex Method in Linear Programming Supply Constraints Demand Constraints Flow Costs (Distance, Cost, Time) – Based on All or Nothing Assignment on Least Cost Route.

To-and-from state freight hubs located within five miles of T1 and T2 highways; freight hubs are defined as: (1) agricultural processing centers (2) distribution centers (3) intermodal facilities (4) industrial/commercial zoned land

Do the Freight Economic Corridors Serve the Needs of the County? Largely misses opportunities to capitalize on the intermodal nature of bulk movements. Both rail lines are owned by the state for the purpose of wheat movement; Ready rail access (low truck miles) reduces wear and tear on roads; River movement is low cost, safe, and very low emissions. By accounting for the intermodal flow of wheat, the state county and local municipalities can better prioritize investment.

Expanding this approach Account for transshipments Utilization of small elevators or on farm storage that feed larger, intermodal elevators Expand crop base Include pulse crops that have a decidedly different supply chain Include other Industries in the state/region Argument for expanding the criteria for “Freight Economic Corridors”

Washington State University Freight Policy Transportation Institute THANK YOU!! For more Information: Washington State University Freight Policy Transportation Institute Ken Casavant, Director casavantk@wsu.edu 509-335-1608 Eric Jessup, Associate Director Eric_jessup@wsu.edu 509-335-4987