Crafting a Resilience Program Davin Holen Assistant Professor Coastal Community Resilience Specialist Alaska Sea Grant Marine Advisory Program School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences University of Alaska Fairbanks Alaska Sea Grant Advisory Council Meeting Anchorage November 7-8, 2016

Coastal Community Resilience Specialist Position began on January 21, 2016. Davin is an anthropologist with a background in subsistence research in rural communities across Alaska. Position seeded with 20 months of funding

Coastal Community Resilience Specialist: Position Description ASSESS AND PRIORITIZE FACTORS AFFECTING RESILIENCE OF COASTAL ALASKA COMMUNITIES Assess potential and future impacts to coastal communities and economies Work with coastal communities affected by climate and coastal hazards Assist communities to create and implement resilience and adaptation plans

Restructure program based on statewide needs Assess program based on position description, funders, & ASG strategic plan Participate in projects with a diversity of researchers, agencies, and Tribes Assess needs statewide based on participation in a diversity of projects Restructure program based on statewide needs

Collaborative Learning Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea LCC Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association Western Alaska LCC Agnew::Beck Nome Eskimo Community Kawarek Mitigation & Adaptation Planning Research & Monitoring Qawalangin Tribe Bristol Bay Native Association State of Alaska DNR UAF Department of Geosciences Bureau of Oceans and Energy Management State of Alaska ADF&G Collaborative Learning Central Council Tlingit & Haida Sitka Tribe of Alaska US Forest Service University of Alaska Southeast The Nature Conservancy Southeast Alaska Watershed Coalition

Nome Eskimo Community Climate Adaptation Plan Models: VCAPS – Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process. Integrate local knowledge and scientific data into understandings of climate impacts on the local system. Improve understandings of potential impacts, sensitivities, and management options among local decisions makers. Help identify options for action. Source: Kettle, et al. 2014:19; Webler, et al. 2014

Arctic Frost Paper Climate Change Adaptation in Alaska: “I have a great anxiety for the future of my children.”

Sea level rise of 216 feet (melt of all land based ice) Source: National Geographic

Potential Inundation in Alaska due to climate change – Snapshot from a global model Source: Weiss & Overpeck 2011

Data: Changing Climate – Air temperature change, Alaska Source: Alaska Climate Research Center

Approach: Think in terms of generations

Approach: Use Narrative

Southeast Alaska Environmental Conference The Changing Climate of Southeast Alaska: Tribal led Monitoring, Mitigation and Adaptation Activities Approach: USE DOWNSCALED DATA MAKE IT LOCAL Southeast Alaska Environmental Conference

Approach: Activities related to climate change Monitoring - The systematic process of observing, tracking, and recording data to set a baseline and monitor change. Mitigation – An effort to reduce risk from the causes of climate change. Adaptation – Beneficial adjustments to deal with the impacts of climate change.

Southeast Alaska Climate Adaptation Workshop: A Component of the Southeast Environmental Conference Goals: 1. Review current status of 5 resources identified as culturally important. Also include human health. 2. Initiate monitoring and mitigation strategies. Salmon Shellfish Berries Yellow cedar Cultural sites Human health Forest Environment September 22-23, 2016 in Ketchikan, Cape Fox Lodge 50 Tribal members from Southeast Alaska 30 presenters and other participants

Workshop Process Collaboratively led with the Central Council of Tlingit and Haida Indian Tribes and Sitka Tribe of Alaska. Review latest ongoing research on key cultural species in Southeast Alaska. Collaboratively discuss potential mitigation and monitoring activities. Review current ongoing and proposed mitigation and monitoring activities. Initiate or join current mitigation and monitoring activities as partnerships involving nonprofits, Tribes, land managers, and agencies.

Next Steps Write EPA IGAP work plans for coming year incorporating mitigation and monitoring activities. Upcoming: BIA funded climate adaptation plan led by the Central Council of Tlingit and Haida Indians of Alaska. Regional adaptation plan. Provides communities in the region a template to design their own plan. Potential model for other regions of Alaska.

Summary: Lessons Learned Program: Services Provided Communities are adaptive Provide projections that are 1-3 generations; 2050-2100 Use downscaled data where possible Use data projections that are graphic and easy to understand Collaboratively develop narratives Collaboratively develop local solutions Collaborative Learning Research and Monitoring Mitigation and Adaptation