Making Aviation Safer: Results of the National Aviation Weather Program’s 10-Year Goal to Reduce Weather-Related Accidents by 80 Percent 25th IIPS, AMS Session 4A.1 January 13, 2009 Samuel Williamson, Jud Stailey*, Mark Welshinger Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Robert Katt Robert Katt and Associates, Inc *judson.stailey@noaa.gov

Overview Background Mid-Course Assessment Final Assessment Way Ahead FAR Definitions Ten-year Trends Hazard Categories By Hazard Category Way Ahead Courtesy of Southwest Airlines Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA Courtesy of NATA © NATA Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

Background NRC – Aviation Weather Services – A Call for Federal Leadership and Action – 1995 White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security – 1997 Goal: Reduce fatal accidents by 80% in 10 years National Aviation Weather Program (NAWP) Strategic Plan – 1997 NAWP Initiatives – 1999 Programs/Projects Baseline – 2001 Update – 2003 Update – 2004

Overview Background Mid-Course Assessment Final Assessment Way Ahead FAR Definitions Ten-year Trends Hazard Categories By Hazard Category Way Ahead Courtesy of Southwest Airlines Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA Courtesy of NATA © NATA Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

Mid-Course Assessment - 2003 Included accident data 1996-2001 Established trends for all weather-related and fatal weather-related accidents Reviewed status of programs/ projects in context of accident trends Conclusions & Recommendations Significant progress toward 10-year goal!

Overview Background Mid-Course Assessment Final Assessment Way Ahead FAR Definitions Ten-year Trends Hazard Categories By Hazard Category Way Ahead Courtesy of Southwest Airlines Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA Courtesy of NATA © NATA Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

Final Assessment Received final NTSB accident data through 2006 in Spring 2008 Analysis of the full ten years using same approach used in the Mid-Course Assessment

Overview Background Mid-Course Assessment Final Assessment Way Ahead FAR Definitions Ten-year Trends Hazard Categories By Hazard Category Way Ahead Courtesy of Southwest Airlines Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA Courtesy of NATA © NATA Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

Final Assessment Federal Aviation Regulation (Title 14) categories of aviation operations were considered separately: Part 91: All aviation other than military or commercial Part 121: Major passenger airlines and cargo carriers that fly large transport-category aircraft in revenue service Part 135: Scheduled passenger service in aircraft with fewer than ten seats and nonscheduled operations—revenue-earning flights in which the departure time, departure location and destination are negotiated with the customer

Overview Background Mid-Course Assessment Final Assessment Way Ahead FAR Definitions Ten-year Trends Hazard Categories By Hazard Category Way Ahead Courtesy of Southwest Airlines Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA Courtesy of NATA © NATA Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

Significant progress in meeting the 10-year accident reduction goal Accident Rate Trends Significant progress in meeting the 10-year accident reduction goal All Accidents Fatal Accidents Part All 17% 17% 91 Wx Related 33% 49% All 17% NA 121 Wx Related 30% NA All 7% 63% 135 Wx Related 23% 37%

Part 91 Aviation, Weather-Related Accidents per 100,000 Flight-Hours 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Accidents per 100,000 Flight-Hours All weather-related accidents Weather-related fatal 2006 goal = 0.08 2006 trend = 0.23 2006 goal = 0.34 2006 trend = 1.12

Overview Background Mid-Course Assessment Final Assessment Way Ahead FAR Definitions Ten-year Trends Hazard Categories By Hazard Category Way Ahead Courtesy of Southwest Airlines Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA Courtesy of NATA © NATA Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

Final Assessment Hazard Categories: Restricted Visibility and Ceiling (7) Precipitation (non-icing) (3) Icing Conditions (4) Turbulence and Convection (17) Temperature and Lift (6) En Route and Terminal Winds (4) Electrical (2) Airborne solids (2)

NTSB Weather Factors and Hazard Categories Restricted visibility and ceiling: Below approach/landing mins Clouds Fog Haze/smoke Low ceiling Obscuration Whiteout Precipitation (non-icing): Rain Snow Drizzle/mist Icing conditions: Icing conditions Ice fog Freezing rain Carburetor icing Turbulence and convection: Turbulence (thunderstorm) Thunderstorm Thunderstorm outflow Microburst (dry) Microburst (wet) Updraft Downdraft Gusts Wind shear Dust Devil/Whirlwind Variable wind Sudden wind shift Mountain Wave Turbulence Turbulence, clear air Turbulence in clouds Turbulence (terrain induced)

NTSB Factors and Weather Categories (Cont’d) Temperature and lift: Temperature inversion High density altitude Temperature, high Temperature, low Thermal lift No thermal lift En route and terminal winds: Unfavorable wind Crosswind Tail wind High wind Electrical: Lightning Static discharge Airborne solids: Sand/dust storm Hail

Overview Background Mid-Course Assessment Final Assessment Way Ahead FAR Definitions Ten-year Trends Hazard Categories By Hazard Category Way Ahead Courtesy of Southwest Airlines Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA Courtesy of NATA © NATA Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

Part 91, Trend for Category A, Restricted Visibility and Ceiling Hazards 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Fatal Accidents All Accidents 2006 goal = 0.10 2006 trend = 0.21 2006 goal = 0.08 2006 trend = 0.18 Weather Factor Cites per 100,000 Flight-Hours

Part 91, Trend for Category D, Turbulence and Convection Hazards 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Fatal Accidents All Accidents Weather Factor Cites per 100,000 Flight-Hours 2006 goal = 0.15 2006 trend = 0.41 2006 goal = 0.02 2006 trend = 0.05

Part 91, Trend for Category F, En Route and Terminal Winds 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Fatal Accidents All Accidents Weather Factor Cites per 100,000 Flight-Hours 2006 goal = 0.16 2006 trend = 0.47 2006 goal = 0.015 2006 trend = 0.022

Part 121: Trends for all weather hazards and for turbulence & convection hazards 0.000 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 0.120 0.140 0.160 0.180 0.200 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year All Turbulence and convection hazards 2006 goal = 0.025 2006 trend = 0.084 2006 goal = 0.023 2006 trend = 0.077 Weather Factor Cites per 100,000 Departures

Overview Background Mid-Course Assessment Final Assessment Way Ahead FAR Definitions Ten-year Trends Hazard Categories By Hazard Category Way Ahead Courtesy of Southwest Airlines Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA Courtesy of NATA © NATA Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

The Way Ahead Objective: Sustain progress to date, remove barriers to reducing accident rates further, and provide an effective system for NextGen transition. Continue to collect and analyze annual data Investigate timing and potential effectiveness of programs/projects in light of trends (including those completed before 1997) Consider continuing to identify and track programs/ projects