Medicare, Social Security, and the 2016 Election Celinda Lake June 7, 2016 Lake Research Partners Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066

2016 Election

How the voters view major 2016 issues Trump voters stand out for their pessimism about the direction of the country and their pronounced economic anxiety. Supporters of Trump, Clinton, and Sanders share the belief that the nation’s economic system favors the rich. And, don’t reduce Social Security benefits. 3 Source: Pew Research Center poll conducted March 17-27

Our battleground poll pointed to significant levels of anxiety in the national mood, as evidenced by a strong majority of Americans feeling as though things in the country have gotten off on the wrong track. Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? 4 LRP/Tarrance Group. April 17-20, 2016 N=1,000 Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.1%

Fear of another recession still exists among many Americans, with a majority (72%) reporting to be very worried or somewhat worried about the prospect of another economic downturn. How worried are you that the United States will suffer another economic downturn which will negatively affect your family? 5 LRP/Tarrance Group. April 17-20, 2016 N=1,000 Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.1%

A majority of voters believe the next generation will be worse off economically than the current generation. Do you believe that the next generation will be better off economically than the current generation? 6 LRP/Tarrance Group. April 17-20, 2016 N=1,000 Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.1%

A majority of registered voters want the next president to take the country in a different direction. Overall, do you want the next president to mostly continue the policies of President Obama, or take the country in a different direction? Republican: 3% Independent: 28% Democrat: 67% 7 LRP/Tarrance Group. April 17-20, 2016 N=1,000 Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.1%

The economy dominates the agenda. What do you think is the most important issue that the next president should be focused on? Would you say it is… *Not a category in a previous survey 8 LRP/Tarrance Group. April 17-20, 2016 N=1,000 Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.1%

How favorable are you toward: A majority of voters have an unfavorable impression of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. How favorable are you toward: Hillary Clinton Donald Trump 9 CBS. May 13-17, 2016 N=1,300 adults nationwide, including 1,109 registered voters by telephone, MOE +/- 3.0

Hillary Clinton is the preferred candidate of women, younger voters, college educated voters, Latinos and African Americans. Trump wins older voters, white voters. While he also wins with men, Clinton performs much better among men (-16) than Trump does among women (-24). Independents are split between the two candidates, currently leaning toward Trump. vs. 10 May 24 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,561 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 678 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. 

Seniors have voted Republican the past three elections. Democratic Advantage in House Elections 2004-2014 among all voters (Election Results*, Orange), voters 65+ (Exit Polls, Blue) 11 CNN/ABC House Exit Polls

Half of voters find the rhetoric used in this election cycle repulsive. 53% 21% 4% 19% 4% 12 Source: Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group; N=1,000 Registered voters; April 17-20, 2016

Who do you have more confidence in? [on THE ECONOMY] Voters have more confidence in the Republican Party when it comes to dealing with the economy, but they are split on whether they have more confidence in Trump or Clinton. Who do you have more confidence in? [on THE ECONOMY] 13 LRP/Tarrance Group. April 17-20, 2016 N=1,000 Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.1%

Who do you have more confidence in? [on HEALTH CARE] Voters have more confidence in the Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton to deal with the issue of healthcare. Who do you have more confidence in? [on HEALTH CARE] 14 LRP/Tarrance Group. April 17-20, 2016 N=1,000 Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.1%

Social Security Medicare Medicaid

Voters have more confidence in the Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton to deal with the issue of healthcare. Opposes privatization of Social Security, opposes raising the retirement age and opposes reducing annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLA). Opposes closing the long-term shortfall with moves that affect the middle class, whether through benefit reductions or tax increases. Would expand Social Security for those who need it most, including widows and women who took significant time out of the workforce to care for children or aging parents. Would increase taxes on the wealthiest Americans by raising the cap on Social Security taxable income and taxing other income not currently taken into account by the Social Security system. Talked of expanding benefits. Opposes cuts to Social Security and opposes raising the retirement age. 16

Voters remain divided on the ACA As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it? April 2015 Favorable 43 Unfavorable 42 17

Democrats, low income Americans, and Younger voters are positive toward ACA. Republicans, middle income, and older voters are more likely negative. As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it? 18

Main Source of Health Insurance (Adults over 50) Nearly half of voters over 50 rely on a government program for health insurance coverage—including Medicare and Medicaid. Main Source of Health Insurance (Adults over 50) 19 Source: AARP; nationwide telephone survey among 2016 general election voters age 50 and older; N=1,659

Older voters overwhelmingly support allowing Medicare to negotiate lower Rx prices. All parties favor the policy. Do you support or oppose allowing Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices? % Support Democrats 86 Independents 78 Republicans 84 20 Source: AARP; nationwide telephone survey among 2016 general election voters age 50 and older; N=1,659

Older voters want to hear candidates positions on healthcare, living independently, and Social Security. How helpful would it be in your vote decisions to learn about a presidential candidates plan for this? 21 Source: AARP; nationwide telephone survey among 2016 general election voters age 50 and older; N=1,659

% Saying Very Important Across older demographic groups, strengthening Social Security is viewed as very important. How important is it to you that the government take action to make Social Security financially sound for future generations? % Saying Very Important Men 82 Women 83 50-59 78 60-69 86 70+ White AA 90 Latino Dem 85 Ind Rep 81 22 Source: AARP; nationwide telephone survey among 2016 general election voters age 50 and older; N=1,659

Voters across party lines strongly favor raising the Social Security cap. SOCIAL SECURITY: Gradually requiring employees and employers to pay Social Security taxes on all wages above $110,100 which they do not do now. Oppose Favor Darker colors indicate intensity 23 Lake Research Partners, November 4-6, 2012 by telephone, N=1200 registered likely 2012 voters, MOE= +/-2.9%

6 in 10 seniors (59%) say they are more likely to support a candidate who has opposed cuts to Medicare home health benefits. Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate for president who opposed any cuts in funding to Medicare home health benefits? 24 Source: Morning Consult/Bring the Vote Home National Seniors Poll, February 23, 2016

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066 Celinda Lake celinda@lakeresearch.com @celindalake