EIA’s April 2005 Analysis of Modeled NCEP Recommendations

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Presentation transcript:

EIA’s April 2005 Analysis of Modeled NCEP Recommendations Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator Energy Information Administration (howard.gruenspecht@eia.doe.gov) Presented at: National Commission on Energy Policy Workshop September 1, 2005 Washington, D.C

Background In December 2004, Senator Bingaman requested that EIA provide an analysis of the impacts of the NCEP policy recommendations EIA modeled some, but not all, of the NCEP regulatory and incentive programs and performed sensitivity analysis to consider alternative technology cost and availability scenarios The baseline for the analysis was the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case, which does not include programs in the recently enacted energy bill.

Cases Considered in EIA’s Analysis REF =AEO2005 Reference Case HiTech AEO2005 HiTech Case CAFE = REF +NCEP CAFE program (w/ details provided by Bingaman staff) Cap-Trade = REF +NCEP cap and trade program for greenhouse gases (GHGs) including safety valve No Safety = Cap-Trade w/o safety valve Bldg-Std = REF + building/appl standards Incent = REF + tax incentives and Deployments NCEP-HiT HiTech + NCEP NCEP = All modeled policies Today’s briefing focuses on shaded cases Full report at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/bingaman/index.html

Covered Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Three Cases, 2002-2025 (million metric tons of CO2-equivalent) Reference Cap-Trade NCEP Emissions Target

Emission Reductions by Category in Three Cases, 2015 and 2025 (million metric tons of CO2-equivalent) Other Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide NCEP Cap-Trade

Carbon Dioxide Reductions by Sector in Two Cases, 2015 and 2025 (million metric tons carbon dioxide) Commercial Residential Industrial Transportation Electric Power NCEP Cap-Trade

Electricity Generation by Fuel in Three Cases, 2025 (billion kilowatthours) Reference NCEP 2003 Cap-Trade

Cumulative Generating Capacity Additions by Technology Type, 2004-2025 (gigawatts) NCEP Cap-Trade Reference

Oil Consumption in Four Cases, 2003-2025 (million barrels per day) Reference Cap-Trade CAFE NCEP

Total Natural Gas Consumption in Three Cases, 2003-2025 (quadrillion Btu) Cap-Trade Reference CAP-TRADE Reference NCEP NCEP

Total Coal Consumption in Three Cases, 2003-2025 (quadrillion Btu) Reference CAP-TRADE NCEP Reference NCEP Cap-Trade

Emission Permit Prices in Three Cases, 2009-2025 (2003 dollars per metric ton of CO2-equivalent) No-Safety Safety Valve Price NCEP Cap-Trade

Electricity Prices in Three Cases, 2003, 2010, 2015, and 2025 (2003 cents per kilowatthour) Cap-Trade NCEP Ref

Impacts on the Consumer Price Index for Energy, 2003-2025 (percent change from reference) Cap-Trade NCEP

Impacts on Real GDP and Consumption per Household (percent change from reference) Loss in Consumption per Household (2003 dollars per household) Cap-Trade NCEP Cap-Trade NCEP

Total Primary Energy Consumption in Four Cases, 2003-2025 (quadrillion Btu) Reference NCEP NCEP-HiTech HiTech

Emission Permit Prices in Two Cases, 2009-2025 (2003 dollars per metric ton of CO2-equivalent) Safety Valve Price NCEP-HiTech NCEP