Chapter 3: World Population Growth Beyond Economic Growth: An Introduction to Sustainable Development By Tatyana P. Soubbotina 1

Overview of Chapter 3: World Population Growth Measuring population growth  Birth rates, death rates, and migration The demographic transition model  Four stages of population growth What will happen to global population? Population decline in transition economies 2

Measuring population growth Birth rate is number of live births in a year per 1,000 people (range from about 10 to 40) Death rate is number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people (range from about 10 to 40) Natural population increase is difference between birth rate and death rate  If birth rate is greater than the death rate then natural population is growing Population growth rate depends on natural growth rate and migration 3

The demographic transition model of natural population increase (Fig. 3.2) Stage 1: high birth and death rates  Natural population is stable Stage 2: high birth rates and falling death rates  Falling death rates are primarily from medical advances  Rapid increase in natural population Stage 3: falling birth rates and low death rates  Falling birth rates have many causes: female empowerment, economic growth, reduced reliance on child labor,  Slower increase in natural population Stage 4: low birth and death rates  Natural population is stable Stage 5?? Stage 6?? 4

What will happen to global population? Many developed countries have passed through all four stages and have stable populations with low birth and death rates (Fig. 3.2) Developing countries are in various stage of the demographic transition (Fig. 3.2 and Fig. 3.3)  Sub-Saharan Africa has highest population growth (Map 3.1) As countries progress through the demographic transition, population predicted to stabilize at 9-10 billion (Fig. 3.1) 5

Population decline in transition economies The formerly communist countries have seen rising death rates and falling birth rates  Natural population has fallen for some countries  This trend will likely reverse if economic growth recovers 6