CHARTING A COURSE FOR IONS: FUTURE OUTLOOK AND WAYS AHEAD

“ It’s tough to make predictions; especially about the future!” “ It’s tough to make predictions; especially about the future!” Yogi Berra, Yogi Berra, American baseball hero American baseball hero

The 500-year long era of Western domination of Asia, which commenced with the arrival of Vasco da Gama in 1498, is now in a state of terminal decline, due partly to Europe and America’s economic travails, but mainly due to the economic, political and military rise of Asia.

The ‘Greater Indian Ocean’; an area extending from the Horn of Africa to Indonesia, is taking centre-stage in world affairs. As such, the Indian Ocean will see many global struggles playing out; it is here that the fight for democracy, energy- independence and religious freedom will be lost or won. As such, the Indian Ocean will see many global struggles playing out; it is here that the fight for democracy, energy- independence and religious freedom will be lost or won.

“The Indian Ocean is where the rivalry between the US and China in the Pacific interlocks with the regional rivalry between China and India’ -Robert Kaplan -Robert Kaplan “No ocean is in need of strategic stability more than the Indian Ocean, since the navies of six nuclear powers, US, Russia, France, UK, China, India and Pakistan ply in these waters.’ “No ocean is in need of strategic stability more than the Indian Ocean, since the navies of six nuclear powers, US, Russia, France, UK, China, India and Pakistan ply in these waters.’ -Thomas Barnett -Thomas Barnett “The Indian Ocean is where the rivalry between the US and China in the Pacific interlocks with the regional rivalry between China and India’ -Robert Kaplan -Robert Kaplan “No ocean is in need of strategic stability more than the Indian Ocean, since the navies of six nuclear powers, US, Russia, France, UK, China, India and Pakistan ply in these waters.’ “No ocean is in need of strategic stability more than the Indian Ocean, since the navies of six nuclear powers, US, Russia, France, UK, China, India and Pakistan ply in these waters.’ -Thomas Barnett -Thomas Barnett

TRIFURCATION OF IOR BETWEEN U.S COMMANDS

Not only has the level of intra-regional trade and political interaction remained low, but we have invariably gone beyond the IOR to seek partners. This paucity of common interests and lack of inter-dependence – perhaps a legacy of the colonial past – is the reason why more recent attempts to create pan-IOR organisations like the Indian Ocean Rim Association have not been entirely successful. This paucity of common interests and lack of inter-dependence – perhaps a legacy of the colonial past – is the reason why more recent attempts to create pan-IOR organisations like the Indian Ocean Rim Association have not been entirely successful.

THE IOR ‘HOT-SPOTS’  Territorial disputes, on land as well as offshore, which have defied resolution for decades.  Nuclear weapon states in the IOR have deployed warheads, on shore-based as well as sea-going platforms.  An unstated naval arms race has been in progress across the IOR for some time.  Territorial disputes, on land as well as offshore, which have defied resolution for decades.  Nuclear weapon states in the IOR have deployed warheads, on shore-based as well as sea-going platforms.  An unstated naval arms race has been in progress across the IOR for some time.

“ War has ceased to be the natural, or even normal, condition of nations, and military considerations are merely accessory and subordinate to the other great interests, economical and commercial, that they serve.” -AT Mahan -AT Mahan

INCLUSIVITY IS VITAL… “We seek a future for the Indian Ocean that ensures Security and Growth for All in the Region.” - Indian PM Narendra Modi ‘SAGAR’ The acronym ‘SAGAR’ is now a foreign policy watchword in New Delhi “We seek a future for the Indian Ocean that ensures Security and Growth for All in the Region.” - Indian PM Narendra Modi ‘SAGAR’ The acronym ‘SAGAR’ is now a foreign policy watchword in New Delhi

The inception of IONS, in 2008, was a step of historic significance, because it represented the first post-colonial endeavour by nations of the IOR periphery to create maritime linkages, directly with each other. While renewing ancient bonds, disrupted by colonial domination, IONS also sought to create new partnerships and thereby reinforce an IOR identity and cohesion. While renewing ancient bonds, disrupted by colonial domination, IONS also sought to create new partnerships and thereby reinforce an IOR identity and cohesion.

‘No nation can do everything by itself, but many nations can do something together....’....As the 2005 Hurricane Katarina in the USA and the 2011 tsunami in Japan demonstrated, even advanced nations can get overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of such disasters and need external assistance.....As the 2005 Hurricane Katarina in the USA and the 2011 tsunami in Japan demonstrated, even advanced nations can get overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of such disasters and need external assistance. ‘No nation can do everything by itself, but many nations can do something together....’....As the 2005 Hurricane Katarina in the USA and the 2011 tsunami in Japan demonstrated, even advanced nations can get overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of such disasters and need external assistance.....As the 2005 Hurricane Katarina in the USA and the 2011 tsunami in Japan demonstrated, even advanced nations can get overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of such disasters and need external assistance.

POSSIBLE WAYS AHEAD……  The creation of an ‘IOR Maritime Partnership’ to serve the common cause of safety and security at sea.  Laying the foundation for an information-sharing system between IONS members.  Constitution of a Maritime Confidence Building Forum, which could address the underlying causes of insecurity, discuss measures to limit maritime capabilities, and prevent an unbridled naval arms race.  The creation of an ‘IOR Maritime Partnership’ to serve the common cause of safety and security at sea.  Laying the foundation for an information-sharing system between IONS members.  Constitution of a Maritime Confidence Building Forum, which could address the underlying causes of insecurity, discuss measures to limit maritime capabilities, and prevent an unbridled naval arms race.

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION As the force of economics lifts the IOR to higher levels of growth, we must remember that our vital interests are inextricably linked to one another. No nation, big or small, can hope to prosper in isolation, leaving others behind. Inclusivity is, therefore, the vital key to our prosperity and security. Inclusivity is, therefore, the vital key to our prosperity and security. As the force of economics lifts the IOR to higher levels of growth, we must remember that our vital interests are inextricably linked to one another. No nation, big or small, can hope to prosper in isolation, leaving others behind. Inclusivity is, therefore, the vital key to our prosperity and security. Inclusivity is, therefore, the vital key to our prosperity and security.

THANK YOU!