Biofuel and the Environment: Opportunities and Risks Joe Fargione The Nature Conservancy

Outline Corn ethanol trends and impacts Future biofuels potential impacts International trade Policies to protect environment

Year Billions of gallons Source: Renewable Fuels Association

Proposed Legislation Year Billions of gallons Current Capacity 15 billion gallons

Corn used for fuel alcohol Sources: National Corn Growers Association USDA Economic Research Service Year Millions of acres

Proposed corn acres for fuel alcohol Year Millions of acres 36 million acres needed to meet 15 billion gallon mandate

Proposed corn acres for fuel alcohol Year Millions of acres 13 million more acres than 2007

Environmental Impacts of Corn 1. Habitat Loss

Estimated Henslow’s Sparrow Population

CRP Authorized

2. Soil Erosion

3. Water Use ~4 gallons of water for every gallon of ethanol Even more water used in irrigating corn 15% of corn is irrigated

4. Freshwater Sediment Nutrients Pesticides Loss of fish habitat

5. Groundwater

How much grassland will be converted to corn?

Where is all the new land for corn coming from? 1. Other crops Year Millions of acres

Where is all the new land for corn coming from? 2. Grassland 21% decrease in CRP enrollment so far this year compared to last year - USDA has no “open enrolment” for CRP this year, to help meet demand for corn

At current CRP payments - 61% of CRP will be cropped at $4.00 corn -54% of CRP will be cropped at $3.33 corn Iowa study: acreage out of CRP as a function of corn prices Secchi & Babcock In prep

FSA data shows 400,000+ acres of “newly broken" land in the Dakotas and Montana from

Summary: Corn ethanol trends Ethanol production is causing the conversion of grassland to corn 6-13 million acres of more corn to produce billion gallons Millions of acres of grassland converted

Summary: Corn ethanol impacts 1.Habitat Loss 2.Soil Erosion 3.Water Use 4.Freshwater Habitat 5.Groundwater

How to address this threat? Stabilize or reduce corn demand Biofuels certification would ensure –Land not converted from natural habitat –Provides real carbon emission reduction

Future of biofuels

Proposed Legislation Year Billions of gallons 21 15

How much land for 21 billion gallons of “advanced biofuels”?

50 million acres of switchgrass Based on: Current rates of ethanol conversion 7 tons/acre Future: Switchgrass?

25 million acres of Miscanthus giganteaus Asian grass Yields twice switchgrass Future: Monocultures of Exotic Cultivars?

Alternative future: Low-Input High-Diversity Prairie

The Cedar Creek Biodiversity Experiment 168 Plots – Each 9 m x 9 m Random Compositions of 1, 2, 4, 8, or 16 Species

High Diversity Grasslands Produced 238% More Biofuel Each Year Than Monocultures Switchgrass

Is prairie biomass harvest compatible with wildlife?

YES. Here is how: Perennial Native Diverse Local ecotype One harvest after frost (well outside of primary nesting season) Leave refugia for winter cover Low fertilizer & pesticide input

Policy for Low-Input High-Diversity Prairie Has value both for biomass production and wildlife But may have lower yields than some cultivars with poor wildlife value (Miscanthus) Market payment + conservation payment needed to encourage this land use

International Trade

Where is all the new land for corn coming from? 1. Other crops Year Millions of acres

Converting natural lands to biofuels is bad for global warming Carbon Debt 810 Habitat Amazon Offset (yr) 0.9 Years to repay 1006 Tons CO2 per ha Crop Soy

Converting natural lands to biofuels is bad for global warming Carbon Debt Habitat Amazon Great Plains Offset (yr) Years to repay Tons CO2 per ha Crop Soy Corn

Converting natural lands to biofuels is bad for global warming Carbon Debt Habitat Amazon Great Plains Offset (yr) Years to repay Tons CO2 per ha Crop Soy Corn Perennial (diverse native)

How to address this threat? Biofuels certification would ensure –Land not converted from natural habitat –Provides real carbon emission reduction Could protect U.S. producers from cheap imports of environmentally unsound foreign biofuel

Conclusions Converting grasslands to corn hurts wildlife Converting grassland to monocultures (especially of exotic species) hurts wildlife Diverse native perennials can be harvested for biomass Habitat conversion releases more CO2 than is saved by biofuels

Policy Implications Maintain & increase conservation payments in farm bill Biofuels certification Conservation payments for diverse native perennials for biomass production Biofuels from waste streams (not land- based)

Final thought Only 12% of transportation fuel would be replaced, even if all corn and soybeans in U.S. were used as fuel An improved electric car battery would more strongly reduce our dependence on foreign oil Easier and more efficient to turn biomass to electricity than liquid transportation fuel