Epidemics Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade Münster, 2013

Epidemic “In epidemiology, an epidemic occurs when new cases of a certain disease, in a given human population, and during a given period, substantially exceed what is expected based on recent experience.”

Epidemic dynamics (SIR model)

 Stocks: susceptible, infected, and recovered  Initial stocks: susceptible = 9998, infected = 2  dt = 1 week  Run time = 30 weeks  Duration of an infection: 2 weeks  Each infected comes into contact 6 with other people  25% of the contacts are enough to cause infection

Epidemic dynamics (SIR model)  Stocks: susceptible, infected, and recovered  Initial stocks: susceptible = 9998, infected = 2  dt = 1 week  Run time = 30 weeks  Duration of an infection: 2 weeks  Each infected comes into contact 6 with other people (but can only infect the susceptible ones)  25% of the contacts are enough to cause infection

Some scenarios  Duration of the infection: 2, 4, 8 weeks  Contacts that cause infection: 50%, 25%, 12.5%  If the number of contacts is cut by half when the infections reach 2000 or 1000 due to an educational campaign.