1. Líliam César de Castro Medeiros,
Individual Based Model for Dengue Transmission: Interactions Between Humans, Mosquitoes and Serotypes
Líliam César de Castro Medeiros,
Antônio Miguel Vieira Monteiro, et al.

2. Dengue Fever
It is a viral disease trasmitted in Brazil mainly by Aedes aegypti mosquito
There are four distinct serotypes of the virus:
DENV1, DENV2, DENV3 e DENV4

3. The clinical spectrum ranges since
asymptomatic infections
mild illness
to the more severe forms of infection such as
dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF)
dengue shock syndrome 3

4. In the World
World Health Organization

5. The Aedes aegypti Urban habits
They live inside and in the proximity of the houses
Hematofagic activities
Multiple bites
Oviposition sites
Eggs resistence
Vertical transmission
The mosquitoes live near the place where there are food, human blood and recipents to put eggs

6. Risk Factors

7. The Model
Humans
Mosquitoes
A multi-level stochastic cellular automata

8. Cellular Automata Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time
The basic elements: cells
The nth iteration
Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

9. Cellular Automata Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time
The basic elements: cells
The nth iteration
Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

10. Cellular Automata Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time
The basic elements: cells
The nth iteration
Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

11. Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time
The basic elements: cells
The nth iteration
Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

12. Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time
The basic elements: cells
The nth iteration
Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

13. Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time
The basic elements: cells
The nth iteration
Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

14. Dynamic and self-reproducing sistems
Discrete space and time
The basic elements: cells
The nth iteration
Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

15. Each cell contains: A finite set of predeterminated states
A set of transition rules (to change the states) which depend on the cell’s neighborhood
The nth iteration
Neumann JV, Burks AW (1966). The Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, University of Illinois Press, Urbana

16. The Model
Humans
Mosquitoes

17. The Model
Humans
Mosquitoes

18. Several Serotypes 1st serotype 2nd serotype 3rd serotype 4th serotype
TCI
1st serotype
2nd serotype
3rd serotype
4th serotype

19. Model Considerations Human mobility Asymptomatic people Human renewal
House infestation
Vector density per household

20. Simulation in Human Lattice
Inicialmente:
inhabitants
70% of house infestation rate
0 a 2 mosq/human
General Mobility: 50%
Percentual of public locations: 3%
Mobility to community centers: 90%

22. Current work Macroscale Occupied area Population density Geography
Informations about vector
Water supply
Garbage collection
Economic variables
Climatic data

23. TerraME is a programming environment for spatial dynamical modelling
TerraME is a programming environment for spatial dynamical modelling. It supports cellular automata, agent-based models, and network models running in 2D cell spaces.

24. Agents are computational systems placed in some environment.
(Jennings et al., 98)
They can represent
Individuals
Households
Institutions
Popular instrumental to
represent social systems,
complex urban systems and
structured epidemiological processes
Slide adapted from Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade, INPE 24

25. Spatial neighbourhood between cells
Cell→cell
Spatial neighbourhood between cells
Slide from Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade, INPE (Aguiar et al., 2003) 25

26. Study Area: Caraguatatuba
Epidemics in:
2002, 2004, 2007 and 2010
More than 3,500 reported cases in 2010

27. Thank you!