A New Climatology of Surface Energy Budget for the Detection and Modeling of Water and Energy Cycle Change across Sub-seasonal to Decadal Timescales Jingfeng Wang and Yi Deng Georgia Institute of Technology NEWS Science Team Meeting March 8-10, 2016, Columbia, MD

Objective Using an innovative method based upon the Maximum Entropy Production Principle to produce a new benchmark climatology of the land, ocean and snow/ice surface energy budgets from the remote sensing and state-of-the- science reanalysis data products available from NASA.

Scientific Questions to Address  How are global precipitation, evaporation and the cycling of water changing?  What are the effects of clouds and surface hydrologic processes on Earth’s climate?  How can predictions of climate variability and change be improved?  How will water cycle dynamics change in the future?

Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) Method  Bayesian Probability theory, Information theory, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and atmospheric boundary turbulence theory,  Closing the surface energy budgets at all space- time scales,  Parsimony in model input and parameters (e.g not explicitly using bulk gradient variables, wind speed and surface roughness data).

5 Model Formulation (Wang and Bras, 2011; Wang et al, 2014) E: latent heat flux H: sensible heat flux Q: soil/water/snow/ice heat flux

Top left panel: MEP modeled climatology of latent heat flux (ET/E) ( ) using the CERES data of net radiation and surface temperature supplemented by the MERRA data of surface specific humidity; Bottom right panel: climatology of ET (1982–2008) based on FLUXNET, satellite remote sensing and surface meteorological data [Jung et al., 2010, Nature]. 110 W m - 2 is equivalent to 1400 mm yr -1.

 Produce the MEP heat fluxes using long-term reanalysis data such as the MERRA and MERRA-2, and continue the method validation and comparison with traditional bulk formula models;  Evaluate trends and seasonal-decadal variability in regional/global water and energy cycles represented by the MEP fluxes;  Test of the MEP-based surface flux models as new parameterization schemes in weather and climate models. Next: