I/M Model Program Characterization I/M Solutions Schaumberg, IL May 5-8,

Study Overview EPA contracted Eastern Research Group (ERG) to develop “model” I/M program emission reduction and cost estimates Analysis scenarios included: – 3 different geographic regions/fleets – 5 testing options – Analysis years 2016, 2018, 2020 – Benefits for carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and total hydrocarbons (THC) 2

Purpose of Study For areas considering new I/M programs or significant program modifications Results provide policy makers w/ information on emission reductions & costs based upon various program designs and geographic region Looks at OBD and non-OBD options independently; benefits/costs can be combined When possible, identify tradeoffs, key uncertainties, simplifying assumptions, etc. 3

Area Selection Intended to represent range of factors influencing I/M cost-effectiveness – Ambient conditions (temperature/humidity) – Variable cost factors (labor, land) – Fleet characteristics (age distributions, growth rates) Areas of roughly equal fleet size selected to represent mid-sized metro areas 3 areas selected, all with existing I/M programs – Eastern; NJ Middlesex County – Central; TX El Paso County – Pacific; OR Multnomah County 4

Selected Area Characteristics EasternCentralPacific OBD570,414466,405494,021 Non-OBD10,48731,25845,272 % Non-OBD1.8%6.2%8.4% Avg Age Avg Ann Mile12,88810,37110,637 FuelRFG 7/13.5Con 8.5/15.3Con 7/13.3

Testing Options – OBD Fleet Gasoline light-duty vehicles only 1996 and newer (2) – Biennial on-board diagnostic (OBD II) testing, lane- based using hand-held scanner (current approach) – Alternative OBD option using R-OBD & K-OBD Voluntary remote OBD (R-OBD) scan using transponders and distributed polling locations (assumes continual rather than biennial frequency) Self-serve OBD “kiosks” (assumes biennial frequency) Motorists participation ratios evaluated: 80/20, 50/50, and 20/80 6

Testing Options – Legacy Fleet 1995 and older, light-duty, gasoline-fueled (3) – Biennial two-speed idle (TSI) Balance of cost vs. reductions on shrinking segment of the fleet Tradeoff: no NOx reductions – Biennial IM240 at final cutpoints Establishes “upper bound” emission reductions from this portion of the fleet – “Dirty Screen” using roadside RSD with confirmatory TSI Limits driver inconvenience Tradeoff: vehicle coverage limits (~50% max) 7

Emissions Calculation Methodology MOVES 2010a used Local inputs obtained from states – Fleets and operating conditions reflect actual, local conditions – I/M scenarios, however, are hypothetical and not based upon the actual programs in-use in the three areas Evaluation dates: 2016, 2018, 2020 Benefits calculated relative to No I/M case R-OBD and RSD/TSI option benefits estimated from biennial OBD and TSI estimates 8

Some Additional Testing Assumptions OBD for 1996+; 5 year new car exemption TSI/IM240 for pre-96 vehicles, no age exemption Gas cap for 2000 and older vehicles 1,331 tests/station/yr (4/day); network decentralized Avg test times-6.5 min OBD; 15.1 min TSI; 14.0 min IM240; 8.0 min misc All stations assumed new – 5% test-only, high volume with different cost considerations 9

Alternative OBD/RSD Assumptions R-OBD & K-OBD fail rates = standard OBD levels 25% RSD fleet coverage for RSD/TSI RSD/TSI cutpoint selected such that – 33% of vehicles identified for testing by RSD – TSI fail rates: 15.1% (2016) – 18.7% (2020) ~50% higher than normal TSI fail rate – Repair benefit: ~18% (THC); ~12% (CO); ~11% NOx Benefits from RSD measurements 10

Projected Baseline Emissions w/o I/M Even without I/M, baseline emissions for all 3 pollutants are projected to go down in all 3 areas over the 3 evaluation dates The sharpest drop is in NOx while the shallowest is in CO – Likely due to the influence of Tier 2 vehicles in the fleet, as CO was not the focus of those standards – All emissions will eventually plateau and then increase due to increases in total VMT over time until the advent of further emission standards Baseline emissions w/o I/M are highest for Pacific and lowest for Eastern areas – Ignoring other variables, age more significant than VMT 11

Projected Baseline Emissions – TPY, No I/M 12 Eastern Central Pacific

Projected CO Emissions w/ I/M Emission reductions from OBD testing either stays steady or goes up Sharpest increase in the Central areas Tailpipe reductions go down in all areas, but most sharply in Pacific areas. 13

Projected Emission Reductions (TPY CO) 14

Projected NOx Emissions w/ I/M Emission reductions from OBD drop in all areas over time Sharpest decrease in Eastern areas Tailpipe reductions drop in all areas even more dramatically Sharpest decline in Pacific areas. Note Pacific NOx levels due to no age exemption on IM240.

Projected Emission Reductions (TPY NOx) 16

Projected THC Emissions w/ I/M OBD sees slightly increased reductions in Central and Pacific areas Slight decline in the East Tailpipe reductions drop in all areas, but most sharply in Central areas. Again, note Pacific levels.

Projected Emission Reductions (TPY THC) 18

Cost Analysis Costs include – Test fees Include labor, building lease, state sales tax, station overhead, equipment purchase and operation/ maintenance, return on investment (profit), no resale value assumed for test equipment – Motorist Repair costs (fail rates from Eastern program plus per vehicle costs - OBD $267; TSI/IM240 $180) Fuel savings (~2.0% per repair) – Government oversight Auditing, enforcement, program evaluation – R-OBD/K-OBD From Oregon pilot program 19

Relative Program Costs 20

Relative Cost Effectiveness On average, OBD-based testing is effective over time for all areas, – OBD is most effective in areas with the newest fleets, like the Eastern states, while less effective, in the near-term, in the Central and Pacific states where the in-use fleet tends to be older on average. While all varieties of tailpipe testing decrease in effectiveness over time, the relative effectiveness of tailpipe testing is greatly influenced by local factors, such as fleet age and labor costs, as well as the tailpipe test type under consideration. – By 2020, TSI testing is one of the least effective tests in all areas – For Eastern states, all varieties of tailpipe testing are relatively less effective, compared to OBD. $/ton values, although not presented at this time may be more acceptable to some areas than others depending on their current reduction needs and the costs for other viable reduction strategies. 21

Conclusions All fleets become cleaner with time Both OBD-based options effective, with only slow change over time Reductions for TSI and IM240 fall off rapidly Newer fleets benefit least from TSI/IM240 RSD/TSI Confirmatory not as effective due to low # fails RSD-based dirty screening on pre-95 fleet is largely handicapped due to coverage issues on a shrinking portion of the overall fleet in all areas. Repair costs and test fees dominate Costs very sensitive to age distributions 22