Update of Market Fundamentals World & US Wheat Markets Note: slides 1 through 14 are exclusively USDA data (except 2016/17 projections); slides 15 and beyond incorporate AES forecasts AdvancedEconomicSolutions™

World Wheat Production: USDA forecasting a record crop in 2015/16 February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions2 -15/16 USDA estimate: 736 MMT, record large and up fractionally from last month -Initial 2016/17 AES World Wheat Crop Estimate: 716 MMT (-3%) -Assumes 1% decline in area -Assumes yields decline toward trend levels in China/FSU/EU

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions3

World Wheat Production vs. Usage – through 16/17 February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions /16 world wheat will be in surplus for 3 rd consecutive year -China is responsible for 3/4 th of stock gain in 15/16 (see following slide) -Small deficit for 2016/17 world wheat projected

World Wheat – excluding China - Situation less bearish in both 15/16 & 16/17 February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions5 -Excluding China, 2015/16 world wheat surplus 10 MMT -Deficit of 6 MMT projected for 16/17

World Wheat Stocks (excluding China) February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions6 -Excluding China, world wheat stocks will gain 7 MMT from YA -Stocks projected to decline by 6 MMT during 2016/17

Food vs. Feed Use of Wheat February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions7

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions /16 World Wheat Crop Forecast to Rise to 736 MMT -But decline to 718 MMT projected for 16/17 - USDA made major revisions to 15/16 balance sheet – almost entirely related to adjustments to China stocks and usage

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions9

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions10

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions11 -Although the US exports around half of its annual crop, the US only represents 13% of world trade -In regards to wheat, the US is the “tail”, not the “dog” -With large world supplies and strong US$, US exports have struggled to compete

Foreign World Wheat Deficit Evaporates - No deficit  the US will need to fight to earn exports (a tough challenge with the strong US$) February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions12 This metric reflects how “pull” there is on US wheat during any given year: -Larger Deficit == more foreign demand for US wheat -Smaller Deficit == less foreign demand for US wheat

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions13 Global exportable wheat supply (production & stocks minus domestic use) among major exporters will remain low during 2014/15

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions14

US Wheat S/D: Stocks Projected to Decline in 16/17 February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions15

Weather/Crop Conditions - Precip concerns are little or none in major growing areas - Significant reduction in dry areas since October (bottom map) - Winter wheat conditions went into dormancy slightly above average and improving February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions16 Now: 4 Months Ago:

USDA Jan 12 Winter Wheat Acreage Estimates – sizable decline forecast February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions17  USDA Jan 12 Winter Wheat Acreage report:  HRW 26.5 mm acres (-9%)  Smallest in more than 35 years  Crop of 784 mm (-5%) projected  SRW 6.7 mm acres (-5%)  Crop of 348 mm (-3%) projected  White winter 3.4 mm (+1%)  Crop of 211 mm (+15%) projected

Total US Winter Wheat Acreage: 36.6 MM - Matching lowest total since 1913 February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions18

KANSAS WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE TRENDS - USDA’S 2016 FORECAST: 8.5 MM ACRES (-8%), SMALLEST SINCE 1913 February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions19

Initial 2016 US Wheat Crop Projection: 1966 mm bushels (-4%) February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions20

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions21

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions22

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions23 US Wheat Imports By Class – YTD TOTAL through Dec: 41 mm vs. 84 mm (-51%)

February 2016 US Wheat Stocks By Class (15/16 & 16/17 AES Forecast) Advanced Economic Solutions24

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions25

Wheat Feed & Residual Use: 2015/16 Forecast 175 mm - Watch March 1 Stocks (released 3/31) for next revision February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions26

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions27

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions28 USDA 15/16 By Class Exports Feb 2016: HRW 220 SRW 125 HRS 255 White 140 Durum 35 TTL 775

Wheat Export Inspections February 2016 Advanced Economic Solutions 29

Wheat By-Class Export Sales February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions30

2015/16 wheat export sales: - Off 18% vs. YA, and 30% below 5-year average February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions31

2015/16 US wheat ending stocks projected by AES to increase to 920 mm (USDA 966) - 2 nd highest in past 15 years February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions32

US Wheat End Stocks By Class - HRW and HRS at 15-year high, while SRW declining slightly February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions33

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions34

Managed funds (“specs”) in all 3 wheat futures markets continue to hold a significant short position - If managed funds were to even their positions (or move to a long position), wheat futures could increase by at least 10%

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions 36  May Chicago Wheat Futures as of 2/19/16: $4.69  USDA Jan 12 report led to sizeable bounce – smallish stocks and declining 2016 winter wheat acres  Prices are very attractive for end-users from a historic perspective.  Availability of quality SRW supplies continues to be a concern of the markets.  Managed money funds continue to have sizable short position  Key fundamentals: Two most important are the direction of the US dollar (generally trending higher), and corn prices. Other drivers will include weather events, as well as changes in export prospects

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions 37  May KC Wheat Futures as of 2/19/16: $4.63  USDA Jan 12 report led to sizeable bounce – smallish stocks and declining 2016 winter wheat acres  Prices are very attractive for end-users from a historic perspective.  Lack of export demand, ample quality driving KC futures to discount to Chicago futures  Managed money funds continue to have sizable short position  Key fundamentals: Two most important are the direction of the US dollar (generally trending higher), and corn prices. Other drivers will include weather events, as well as changes in export prospects

February 2016Advanced Economic Solutions 38  May Mpls Wheat Futures as of 2/19/16: $4.94  USDA Jan 12 report led to sizeable bounce – smallish stocks and declining 2016 winter wheat acres  Prices are very attractive for end-users from a historic perspective.  Mpls maintaining traditional premium to KC & Chicago  Managed money funds have narrowed short position, but still are net short  Key fundamentals: Two most important are the direction of the US dollar (generally trending higher), and corn prices. Other drivers will include weather events, as well as changes in export prospects