Diretrizes de Políticas Públicas para a Agroindústria Canavieira do Estado de São Paulo Projeto Diretrizes de Políticas Públicas para a Agroindústria Canavieira.

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Diretrizes de Políticas Públicas para a Agroindústria Canavieira do Estado de São Paulo Projeto Diretrizes de Políticas Públicas para a Agroindústria Canavieira do Estado de São Paulo Workshop BIOEN/PPP Etanol on Sugarcane Photosynthesis Fapesp, February 18th, 2009

Brazilian Production Evolution of Production: sugarcane, sugar and ethanol

Learning Curve – Brazilian Ethanol

Brazilian Ethanol: reasons for success Brazil established a dynamic relation between Research and Production since the 30’ies Sugarcane, an excellent energy crop Creation of the “Brazilian Model” combining efficient sugar and ethanol production

Productivity (t/ha) IBGE, 2003 Season 06/ t/ha

BIOFUEL PRODUCTION COSTS Biofuel/FeedstockUS$/L gasoline or diesel eq. Ethanol Sugarcane0.25 – 0.50 Maize0.50 – 0.80 Sugar beet0.63 – 0.83 Wheat0.70 – 0.95 Lignocellulose Biodiesel Animal fat0.40 – 0.55 Vegetable oil0.70 – 1.00 Lignocellulose (FT)0.90 – 1.10 Gasoline/Diesel – 0.50 Doornbosch and Steenblink, 2007 Note: 1. Oil price US$ 20 – 70/barrel

ETHANOL AND BIODIESEL GHG REDUCTION Biofuel/CropGHG Emission Reduction Ethanol 1 Sugarcane90 % Lignocellulose % Sugar beet % Maize13 % Biodiesel 2 Rapeseed/soybeans % Palm oil35 % Doornbosch and Steenblik Notes: 1. Compared with gasoline; 2. Compared with mineral diesel

PROCESSMaize 1 Switchgrass 1 Cane 2 (GJ/ha.yr) Energy consumption in agriculture Biomass energy Energy ratio in agriculture Energy consumption in distillery Ethanol energy content Total energy ratio Notes: 1-Source: ORNL, 2- Source: Copersucar/UNICAMP, 3- Corn Stover not included,4- Tops and leaves not included, 5- Does not include credit for co- products, 6-Includes credit for 8% bagasse surplus ENERGY BALANCE IN ETHANOL PRODUCTION

Present Location of Sugar-Ethanol Mills in Brazil

Near Term Expansion of New Sugar- Ethanol Mills ( ), C-S

Area [10 6 ha] Pasture Soybean Corn11 Sugarcane Others 7 21 Agric. land 61 Brazil: ha Total Arable land: ha Brazil: main crops 2007

POTENTIAL FOR SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION: SOIL AND CLIMATE - WITHOUT IRRIGATION Amazon Rainforest Pantanal Atlantic Forest Other important preservation areas Above 12% slope area High Average Low ( World average ) Inapropriate

POTENTIAL FOR SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION: SOIL AND CLIMATE – WITH IRRIGATION Amazon Rainforest Pantanal Atlantic Forest Other important preservation areas Above 12% slope area High Average Low ( World average ) Inapropriate

R$/m 3 (%) Raw Material (cane) Industrial Cost Management Cost Total Ethanol Production Cost

Cane Prod. (t/ha.year) Pol (%) cane Industrial efficiency (%) Liters ethanol/ha 6,0008,20010,400 Expected Productivity Gains

Technology l/tcl/hal/tcl/hal/tcl/ha Conventional 856, , ,400 Hydrolysis ,100373,500 Total 856, , ,900 area needed for 104 M l17 M ha7.5 M ha Impact of New Technologies

SugarcaneEnergy Cane Produtivity (t/ha.year) Fiber (%) cane Trash (%) cane Pol (%) cane Total fiber (t/ha.year) Primary Energy (GJ/ha.year) 520 (12.5 toe)1.100 (26 toe) Sugarcane Primary Energy

Questions: What are the limits for traditional sugarcane breeding ? What is sugarcane productivity potential? Is sugarcane productivity close to its potential? Natural selection really optimizes or there is a way to make it better? Is “energy cane” possible? What is the current status of photosynthesis in the world today? What are the most important bottlenecks?