Coping With Sky-High Jet Fuel Prices Air Transport Association of America April 22, 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

Coping With Sky-High Jet Fuel Prices Air Transport Association of America April 22, 2008

© ATA Apr The Word on the Street “Should current fuel prices persist, the impact on industry profitability is expected to rival – if not exceed – that of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.… While it may sound callous to frame fuel’s rapid ascent against the far greater tragedy of 9/11, the math is indisputable – at current fuel prices, a similar attack on the industry's profitability appears underway….” “Unless fuel prices rapidly retreat, it stands to reason that additional carrier bankruptcies cannot be ruled out. After all, no recession since the industry deregulated has failed to include the bankruptcy of at least one – more typically, several – carriers of size.” (J.P. Morgan Securities North America Corporate Research, Apr. 15, 2008)

© ATA Apr Recent U.S. Airline Shutdowns, Bankruptcies U.S. AirlineLast Day MAXjet12/25/07 Big Sky1/7/08 Aloha3/31/08 ATA4/2/08 Skybus4/5/08 Champion5/31/08 Source: U.S. AirlineCh. 11 Filing Frontier4/11/08

*Some taxes and fees shown include collections from non-U.S. carriers Sources: Department of Homeland Security Federal Aviation Administration Office of Management and Budget Transportation Security Administration DHS Collections = $3.8b AATF + LUST = $11.4b $18B “ Special ” Aviation Taxes Hinder Fuel Pass-Through $18 Billion in Aviation Excise Tax/Fee Collections Estimated for 2007* © ATA Apr

2008 Taxes = 20% ($60)* 1972 Taxes = 7% ($22)* 1992 Taxes = 13% ($38)* Govt. Taxes/Fees on a $300 Ticket* Have Nearly Tripled Uncle Sam ’ s Bite Up Sharply Over Three Decades *Sample itinerary assumes one-stop domestic round trip with maximum passenger facility charge (PFC) per airport; $300 total price includes taxes and fees. © ATA Apr

© ATA Apr Jet Fuel Prices Soaring – Only Partly on Soaring Crude Crack Spread Has Returned to Hurricane Levels: Far Above $5 Historical Norm Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Air Transport Association of America Average Monthly Price per Barrel

© ATA Apr Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration and ATA Dollars per Barrel 2008 Jet Fuel Prices on a Rampage Jet Hits $ per Barrel in NYH, Exacerbated by Heating Oil Shortfall $30-$44 crack spread

© ATA Apr Source: Energy Information AdministrationEnergy Information Administration Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (%) Refinery Utilization at Lowest Level Since Katrina/Rita U.S. Refineries Adjusting to Lower Gasoline Margins Key Factors: U.S. motorist demand easing Europe wants diesel, exports gas U.S. ethanol mandates U.S. refinery configuration

© ATA Apr Jet Fuel Expense 1 Will Break 2007 Record Average Price Paid per Gallon Could Conceivably Exceed $3.00 Sources: Air Transport Association, Energy Information Administration, Department of Transportation 1. U.S. passenger and cargo airlines 2. Based on $75K to employ one FTE 3. Based on approx. $70M per aircraft Equivalent of 490,000 Airline Jobs 2 or 525 New Narrow-body Jets 3

© ATA Apr From 2000 to 1Q08, Jet Fuel Prices Overwhelming Fares Jet Fuel Up 217%, Domestic Fares Down 0.5% Average U.S. Jet Fuel Price (Cents per Gallon) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Avg. Fare to Fly 1,000 Miles Domestically (U.S. Dollars, Excluding Govt. Taxes) Source: ATA passenger revenue report (mainline + regionals)

© ATA Apr Source: Bloomberg WTI Crude NYMEX 1st Nearby Price (USD / Euro) Dollars per Barrel Fuel Has Become Cheaper for European Competitors Exchange Rate Has Widened Price Differential to $40/bbl or 37% Euros per Barrel

A Transatlantic Comparison Equity Market Capitalization on April 17, 2008 Sources: Bloomberg and MSN Market Capitalization (Billions USD) © ATA Apr

© ATA Apr Jet Fuel Consumption (Billions of Gallons)* Airline* Fuel Efficiency Has More Than Doubled Average Fuel Efficiency (RTMs per Gallon)* Source: ATA analysis of DOT Form 41 traffic data (T2-Z240) and DOT monthly fuel consumption * U.S. passenger and cargo airlines operating worldwide – cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs)