Development & Demographics

How big is too big? This question has always vexed demographers. It is difficult to put a precise figure on exactly what would constitute too big in terms of the number of inhabitants on our planet. Discussions of this nature lead to three concepts: 1) Under-population 2) Over-population 3) Optimum Population Quality of Life or Development Population Size The exact optimum population size will vary according to the characteristics of the location (climate, fertility etc) this is reflected in the concept of Carrying Capacity. 12 3

‘Doomsday’ Scenario Thomas Malthus (1798), writing in the late 18 th century, predicted that as population began to grow it would start to do so in an exponential way (2, 4, 16, 256, etc) whilst resources (food, energy etc) would only grow geometrically (2, 4, 8, 16, 32 etc). The inevitable consequence would be a dramatic decline in population as the pressure for competition grew beyond the Carrying Capacity of any given area. Malthus referred to these as “Natural Checks” Population vs Resources In the 1960’s & 1970’s academics began to question, given the rapidly rising global population and the apparent lack of any ‘natural checks’, wether Malthus might have over estimated the potential of a rapidly growing population to destroy itself. Neo-Malthusians, such as Paul Ehrlich, still argue that whilst we may not yet have seen total population collapse (a la Malthus) there are plenty of signs that we are over stretching our planets capacity to support our current (and future!) population growth.

Natural Checks Classically the ‘4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse’: Death War Famine Pestilence

Population vs Resources ‘Baldrick’ Scenario Ester Boserup Writing in 1965 Boserup broke from Malthusian tradition and suggested that far from facing an overpopulation crisis the world was adjusting to the pressures that a growing population was creating and was coming up with a “cunning plan’’! Boserup argued that through planning and ingenuity the world was constantly able to keep 1 or 2 steps ahead of the growing population and stave off the impending ‘natural checks’. Boserup pointed to increased agricultural productivity and yields through improved technology and practices (mechanization, fertilizers, pesticides, HYV’s & GM) In recent years similar sentiments have been expressed by Brian Carnell who has attacked Neo-Malthusians such as Ehrlich for their suggestion that the world faces a population catastrophe. Carnell’s ideas, along with other interesting thoughts can be found on his website:

Population vs Resources ‘It’ll be alright on the night’ Scenario Aurelio Peccei The ‘Club of Rome’ group of economists, geographers & demographers, of whom Peccei was a founding father, produced a theory that was not quite as dramatic as Malthus nor as optimistic as Boserup. The Club of Rome suggested that the worlds population would continue to rise steadily but that the growing pressure on resources would bring about equal changes in the behavior of the population. This is often referred to as a dynamic equilibrium or system balancing. Rather than the ‘ crash landing’ of the Malthusian checks or the ‘business as usual’ approach of Boserup, the Club of Rome suggest the equivalent of a gentle ‘parachute’ decent as the system regulates itself to an appropriate size.

As countries move through the DTM so the structure of their populations change, the numbers of young and old change, as does the size of the working population compared to the dependent (young & elderly) population. A recent fifth stage has been added by demographers to reflect changes occurring in some MEDC’s and Eastern European countries. In this scenario Birth rates continue to fall, below the Death Rate and as a result the population declines and ages.

Japan: typical MEDC stage 5 DTM Often described as an ‘Ageing’ population, exhibits a high elderly dependent population, with a steadily decreasing working population left to support the economic & social burden of care. Replacement level fall below 2 and the proportion of young people declines thus exacerbating problems.

So Sociology? Rapid population growth Who or what is to blame? What are the consequences? Who are the victims? Are there any winners? What does the future hold? Solutions?