1 Fire Emissions Inventories (almost) Closeout -- Ph IV Projections – Fire Emissions Joint Forum Meeting Spokane, WA Day 1 – 1015a part A Dave Randall Air Sciences Inc.

2 Outline Update on where we are in the project. Viewing the data with air quality planning in mind. –Which suite(s) should the FEJF put in the queue for modeling?

3 Phases of Fire EIs Phase II (historical 2002) Baseline (Phase III) (nominal ) Projections (Phase IV) (nominal 2018) Activity Scenarios for each fire type Less Likely More Note: The PLANNING inventories (Phase III & IV) are unique EI’s…unique from each other AND unique from Phase II

4 Anticipated 2018 Activity Levels (Acres) Fire-typeLessLikelyMore WF + WFU 4.7 MM 7.0 MM Rx (broadcast + piles) 1.0 MM2.0 MM3.7 MM Ag1.7 MM NFR1.3 MM

5 Air Quality Planning Fire EI Suites

6 Where are we on the project? Base-Case Planning Fire Files (Ph III) delivered (PT files for modeling). Projection Planning Fire Files (Ph IV) generated and ready for posting (PT files for modeling). Projection Tool developed and tested in- house. Finalizing documentation.

7 What still remains to be done? Decision on NIF format for projection files. –Recommend NOT preparing these files at this point. Decision on what Fire/Air Quality Planning suites to put in queue for RMC modeling. Final Postings and Documentation. Post Projection Tool.

8 2 Mistakes NAT/ANTH assignment method –Ph III files delivered with “old” method (NFDRS based). Alternative method (that we put through the Strawman process) was to use FCCS and FRCC to categorize events. –To keep Ph III and Ph IV comparable, we’ve prepared Ph IV using the “old” method.

9 Nat/Anth Assignment (Based on PH II [2002] Fire Data) FCCS-method Total acres (Phase II Prescribed data) of FCCS fuel models assigned ANTH: 323K –214K acres > 7 tons/acre –30.7K Tons of PM2.5 Total acres (Phase II Prescribed data) of FCCS fuel models assigned NAT: 326K –240K acres < 15 tons/acre –50.1K Tons of PM2.5 NFDRS-method Total acres (Phase II Prescribed data) of NFDRS fuel models assigned ANTH: 301K –235K acres > 7 tons/acre –39.7K Tons of PM2.5 Total acres (Phase II Prescribed data) of NFDRS fuel models assigned NAT: 348K –243K acres < 15 tons/acre –41.0K Tons of PM2.5

10 2 Mistakes (continued) –This issue involved Baseline (Ph III) events that were missing emissions because they were missing smoldering records. SAME MISTAKE made in the Baseline and Baseline Control EI files. Approximate Impact to EIs: Wildfire PM2.5 Tons: 19,147 (4% of total WF emissions) WFU PM2.5 Tons: (2% of total WFU emissions) –Recommended Remedy – Document the issue; Fix the problems in the Projections (Ph IV); Leave Baseline (Ph III) as is.

11 Ph IV Data Review with Air Qualty Planning in Mind Devise a couple of Threshold Questions we’d like to have answered by RMC Modeling. Review the data to determine which Air Quality Planning Suite(s) best answer that question. The best focus appears to be on the difference between Base-Case and Max- App of RX fire.

12 WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Treated Acres Prescribed Burning, Base Case

13 WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Treated Acres Prescribed Burning, Max Case

14 WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Treated Acres Prescribed Burning, Net Difference (Max minus Base)

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16 WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Tons of PM 2.5 Prescribed Burning, Base Case

17 WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Tons of PM 2.5 Prescribed Burning, Max Case

18 WRAP Phase IV 2018 Fire Projection EI Tons of PM 2.5 Prescribed Burning, Net Difference (Max minus Base)

19 Baseline Emission Inventory – Wildfire and Prescribed Fire Occurrence

20 Base-Case Planning Suite – Wildfire and Prescribed Fire Occurrence

21 Base-Case Planning Suite – Prescribed Fire Occurrence

22 Max Application of Rx Fire Planning Suite – Prescribed Fire Occurrence

23 Baseline Annual PM 2.5 Emissions by County Case Study Area: Sawtooth Wilderness

24 Baseline Control Case Annual PM 2.5 Emissions by County Case Study Area: Sawtooth Wilderness

25 Basecase Annual PM 2.5 Emissions by County Case Study Area: Sawtooth Wilderness

26 Climate Conditions / Resource Limited Annual PM 2.5 Emissions by County Case Study Area: Sawtooth Wilderness

27 Max Application of Prescribed Fire Annual PM 2.5 Emissions by County Case Study Area: Sawtooth Wilderness