1. Fire Effects Tradeoff Model (FETM) Mark D. Schaaf, Air Sciences Inc. Portland, Oregon

2. Outline What is FETM? How does it work? What outputs are produced?

3. What is FETM? Landscape-scale simulation model Evaluates annual effects of single or multiple disturbances, whether natural or management related Any spatial domain Any time period from 1 to 300 years (annual increments)

4. Stochastic—Annual number of fire starts for low, moderate, high, and extreme NFDRS weather classes are treated as random variables Dynamic—Landscape composition in each year linked to previous year’s result

5. Non Spatial—Results are assessed by vegetation class (FCC) without regard to where those classes are located on the landscape.Non Spatial—Results are assessed by vegetation class (FCC) without regard to where those classes are located on the landscape. What is FETM?

6. How Does It Work? Simple Example of “State and Transition” Modeling Each state or vegetation class described by a unique Fuel Characteristic Class (FCC). Grass Seedling & Saplings Poles Grass Seed & Sap PP Pole PP Immature PP...

7. 5 years or 20% per year 20 years or 5% per year 30 years or 3.33% per year Natural Succession Grass Seed & Sap PP Pole PP Immature PP 0.2 0.05 0.033 How Does It Work?

8. Grass Seedling & Saplings Poles Immature 50% of fire area Low Intensity Fire Disturbances can result in a change in state, or a change in the fuel bed characteristics within a state. 0.5 How Does It Work?

9. Grass Seedling & Saplings Poles Immature 100% of fire area Moderate Intensity Fire 50% of fire area 1.0 0.5 How Does It Work?

10. Grass Seedling & Saplings Poles Immature 100% of fire area High Intensity Fire 100% of fire area 1.0 How Does It Work?

11. Fire + Succession Only How Does It Work? Grass Seedling & Saplings Poles Immature 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.05 0.033 1.0

12. In reality, flow diagrams are much more complex and inter-linked:In reality, flow diagrams are much more complex and inter-linked: Multiple species groups. Multiple species groups. Multiple disturbances. Multiple disturbances. Pathways may reflect changes in species and/or density as well as changes in surface loading and configuration Pathways may reflect changes in species and/or density as well as changes in surface loading and configuration How Does It Work?

13. Disturbances may include:Disturbances may include: Harvesting operations Harvesting operations Mechanical fuel treatments Mechanical fuel treatments Insects & disease Insects & disease Wildfire and prescribed fire Wildfire and prescribed fire Other Other How Does It Work?

14. Incorporates various state-of-the- science models:Incorporates various state-of-the- science models: CONSUME – consumption, emissions CONSUME – consumption, emissions NFDRS calculations – fire behavior NFDRS calculations – fire behavior Fire type algorithm used in FARSITE Fire type algorithm used in FARSITE PCHA model – weather, fire data PCHA model – weather, fire data IIAA model – costs, breakpoint ROS IIAA model – costs, breakpoint ROS How Does It Work?

15. Comprehensive treatment of fire behavior linked to weather and fuel bed characteristics. Considers different fire types influenced by fuel, topography, and weather: surface, passive crown, active crown.

16. Annual outputs include:Annual outputs include: Vegetation composition Vegetation composition Wildfire acres by fire intensity level Wildfire acres by fire intensity level Prescribed fire acres Prescribed fire acres Smoke emissions (7 pollutants) Smoke emissions (7 pollutants) Net present value (NPV) of fire costs/benefits Net present value (NPV) of fire costs/benefits What Outputs are Produced?

17. Alternative 1: High Suppression/No Rx Fire Wildfire Acres – Alternative 1 Large Suppression Program/No Rx Fire

18. Wildfire Acres – Alternative 2 Alternative 2: High Suppression/Low Rx Fire Large Suppression Program/Low Rx Fire

19. Wildfire Acres – Alternative 3 Alternative 2: High Suppression/Low Rx Fire Small Suppression Program/High Rx Fire

20. Wildfire Acres – Alternative 4 Alternative 2: High Suppression/Low Rx Fire Small Suppression Program/Intermediate Rx Fire

21. Wildfire Acres – Alternative 5 Alternative 2: High Suppression/Low Rx Fire Small Suppression Program/Variable Rx Fire

22. Wildfire Acres by Fire Intensity Level

23. Alternative 2: 7,500 Chaparral Acres Per Year Northern Mixed Chaparral Density 1 Density 2 Density 3 Density 4 Density 5 Landscape Composition Changes

24. Results - Cost Summary ANNUALIZED PRESENT NET VALUE OF FUTURE COSTS AND REVENUES (USD, $1,000s) Alternative Program Costs Fire Suppression Fuel Treatment NVC Wildfire NVC Rx Fire Total PNV 115,0197,08902,268024,376 215,0195,6451,7581,45599424,871 310,7445,4477,03357299724,793 410,7445,5583,5179261,05621,802 510,7445,6432,8219991,15921,336

25. Predicts future effects and landscapes under different management strategies and fire protection policies.Predicts future effects and landscapes under different management strategies and fire protection policies. Similar in capability to other landscape models (VDDT, for example), but addresses fire effects in a more comprehensive manner.Similar in capability to other landscape models (VDDT, for example), but addresses fire effects in a more comprehensive manner. Concluding Comments

26. For additional information, including model setup files, color brochure, users guide, technical documentation, and selected papers, see the web site at:For additional information, including model setup files, color brochure, users guide, technical documentation, and selected papers, see the web site at: www.fs.fed.us/r6/aq/fetm Concluding Comments