Climate Change Policies: The Road to Copenhagen Dr Robert K. Dixon

Energy and Climate Policy: The Road to Copenhagen Dr. Robert K. Dixon September 2009

Trends in Total CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion: Germany (3.2%) United Kingdom (12.8%) Russia (33.0%) United States (12.6%) France (7.7%) Japan (5.2%) Canada (15.2%) European Union (10.8%) Korea (24.7%) Italy (5.5%) Brazil (9.8%) Mexico (9.5) South Africa (11.8%) Australia (17.5%) India (37.0%) Indonesia (20.7%) China (58.1%) Most Improved Least Improved Data Source: International Energy Agency, CO ₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion, Produced using energy balances and the default methodologies and emissions factors from the revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Change in Real GDP 2.0%

Improvements in CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion Real GDP Intensity: Improvements in CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion Real GDP Intensity: CO ₂ from Fuel Combustion / Real GDP (KG CO ₂ per 2000 US$ at PPP) Russia (33.0%) Korea (24.7%) India (37.0%) United Kingdom (12.8%) Canada (15.2%) United States (12.6%) European Union (10.8%) Germany (3.2%) Australia (17.5%) France (7.7%) Japan (5.2%) South Africa (11.8%) Brazil (9.8%) Mexico (9.5) Italy (5.5%) Indonesia (20.7%) China (58.1%) Most Improved Least Improved Data Source: International Energy Agency, CO ₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion, Produced using energy balances and the default methodologies and emissions factors from the revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Change in Real GDP 9.2%

Important Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the Coming Decades: CO 2 Emissions 1 Reference Emission Projections to 2050 and Percent of Global Total OECD Countries Non-OECD Countries CO 2 Emissions (Gt CO 2 /yr) OECD Non-OECD 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO 2. Source: Climate Change Science Program Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (Estimates based on MINICAM model results and other data). 49% 51% 53% 47% 58% 42% 62% 38% 65% 35% 67% 33%

Global CO 2 Emissions 1 —2000, 2050 Reference Case, and 2050 at 50% of Gt/yr 50.6 Gt/yr +97% (24.9 Gt/yr) -75% (-37.7 Gt/yr) 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO 2. Source: Climate Change Science Program Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (Estimates based on MINICAM model results and other data) Emissions2050 Reference Emissions 2050 Global Emissions at 50% of 2000 Emissions CO 2 Emissions (Gt CO 2 /yr) 12.8 Gt/yr

2050 Projection (50.6 Gt Total) 2050 OECD Reference Emissions (16.7 Gt) OECD Countries Non-OECD Countries 2050 Non-OECD Reference Emissions (33.9 Gt) OECD Emissions at 20% 2000 Emissions OECD Emissions at 50% 2000 Emissions -100% ( Gt ) -84% ( Gt ) -61% ( Gt ) -62% ( Gt ) -70% ( Gt ) -81% ( Gt ) 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO2. 2 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., OECD or Non-OECD). Source: Source: Climate Change Science Program Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (Estimates based on MINICAM model results and other data) OECD Emissions (0 Gt) 2050 Non-OECD Emissions (12.8 Gt) 2050 OECD Emissions (267 Gt) 2050 Non-OECD Emissions (10.2 Gt) 2050 OECD Emissions (6.5 Gt) 2050 Non-OECD Emissions (6.3 Gt) OECD Emissions at “0” 2000 Energy CO 2 Emission 1 Reductions Needed to Achieve a 50% Global Emissions Reduction Below 2000 by 2050 Under Three Different Reduction Goals for OECD Countries Annual Gigaton CO 2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference 2 CO 2, Emissions (Gt CO 2 /yr)

Install 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sleipner project (1 MtCO 2 /year) Only 3 sequestration projects of this scale exist today Geologic Sequestration Build 273 “zero-emission” 500 MW coal-fired power plants * Equivalent to about 7% of estimated current global installed coal-fired generating capacity of 2 million MW Coal-Fired Power Plants Using existing production technologies, convert a barren area about 2 times the size of the UK (for a total of over 480,000 km 2 ) Biofuels Install about 750 GW of solar PV, which is 125 times current global installed capacity of 6 GW * Solar Photovoltaics Actions that Provide One Gigaton CO 2 / Year of Mitigation or OffsetsTechnology Convert a barren area greater than the size of Germany and France together (for a total of over 900,000 km 2 ) CO 2 Storage in New Forest Install about 270,000 1 MW wind turbines (operating at a capacity factor of 45%), roughly 3 times the global total installed wind capacity at the end of Wind Energy Deploy 273 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of 20 mpg - or at 17 km/L instead of 8.5 km/L Efficiency Build 136 new nuclear power plants of 1 GW each instead of new coal-fired power plants without CCS Equivalent to about one third of existing worldwide nuclear capacity of 375 GW Nuclear How Big is One Gigaton of CO 2 ? Gigatons = 10 9 Metric tons (1000 Kilograms) *Instead of coal-fired power plants Source: Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, September 2006.

Major Economies Process  Reinforce and accelerate discussions under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and contribute to a global agreement under the Convention by –Long-term Global Goal –National Plans –Technology Development/Cooperation –Financing –Forests, Adaptation

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