1 Sino - US Relations in the Asia-Pacific: New Dynamics 苏浩 教授/博士 外交学与外事管理系 外交学院

Content I. The Transformation of Power Structure Pattern in the Asia-Pacific Region II. The Paradox of Sino-US Relations in Asia-Pacific Security Structure: Confrontation and Interdependence III. New Dynamics in Sino-US security relations in the Asia-Pacific 2

I. The Transformation of Power Structure Pattern in the Asia-Pacific Region Confrontation - Competition – Conflict Coordination – Cooperation - Community 3

4 Main Political Arena in the World

5 Grand Chessboard of Eurasia: Perspective from Zbigniew Brzeninski

1. The transformation of the grand dimensions of international relations: from “Ocean Times” to “New Continental Times” Mankind based upon Land and Sea “Continental Times in Ancient History “Oceanic Times” in Modern and Contemporary History “New Continental Times” in the Coming Era 6

“Continental Times in Ancient History Human civilization came into being on land Pattern of Location of civilization determined by the land Balance between the East and the West Logic of the times: Land Supported by Sea 7

Oceanic Times dominated by the West Colonial Expansion from the West Three Wars in the Twentieth Century Hegemony of Unipolar Superpower Logic of this times: Sea checks Land 8 陆权与海权的对抗 - 海权对陆权的压制

New Continental Times Decline of the West and Rise of the East The Great Reverse of History Human Activities returning to the Land Synergy between Land and Sea 9

One Belt One Road over the Eurasian Continent 10

2. The transformation of the patterns of big power competition: from the module of power transition to the format of power sharing Traditional Logic to the Power Relations Rise and Fall of Powers since the modern times Theory of Power Transition New Logic to the Power Relations Natural Pattern of Power Coordination Theory of Power Sharing 11

两个 “ 球体 ” 间的潜在对立关系 Potential Confrontation Between the Two Units 东亚大陆协作体 Continental Collaboration In East Asia 军事同盟体系 Military Alliance Framework Across the Pacific 双边和多边合作安全 Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperative Security 3. The transformation of Asia-Pacific security structure: from dumbbell pattern to olive community

理想的 “ 橄榄球 ” 式地区安全共同体 Olive Community: Idea of Security Community In the Asia-Pacific Region 亚太安全共同体 Asia-Pacific Security Community

II. The Paradox of Sino-US Relations in Asia- Pacific Security Structure ConfrontationandInterdependence 14

1. The grand tendency of regional and trans-regional cooperation and the realistic confrontation over the Pacific and within East Asia Trans-Pacific Cooperation (APEC) vs US Rebalance - TPP ************ East Asian Cooperation Architecture vs East Asian Maritime Coalition 15

Transforming from Confrontation to Cooperation: Common Security 东亚大陆协作体 Continental Collaboration In East Asia 军事同盟体系 Military Alliance Framework Across the Pacific 双边和多边合作安全 Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperative Security 相互安全 Mutual Security 合作安全 Cooperative Security 2. Security coexistence and military stand-off between China and the US

3. Mutual conflict at hot points on the premise of common security common denuclearization pursuit in the Korean Peninsula and confrontation in Northeast Asian military structure; common restriction on Japan and the stir in the East China Sea; the preservation of peace in the South China Sea and militant provocation 17

III. New Dynamics in Sino-US security relations in the Asia-Pacific New shape of power structure based upon the new civilization politics New balance of big power between the West and the East New Type of Major Countrise Relations 18

1. Safeguarding the regional peace and establishing the Sino-US strategic stability in East Asia 19

A Mutation from ARF － Basing upon Principles of “Treaty of Amity and Cooperation” Asia-Pacific Security Mechanism/Community NEASC United States China Russia Japan Korea, Mongolia West Pacific Pact for Peace

Security Mechanism Across the Pacific Northeast Asian Security Cooperation NEASC United States China Russia Japan Korea Mongolia West Pacific Security Mechanism/Community Security West Pacific Pact NEASC

5) East Asian Security Community in the Multi-layer Regional Security Framework NEASC Mechanism ASEAN Security Community East Asian Security Community West Pacific Pact for Peace

亚太安全共同体 Asia-Pacific Security Community 理想的 “ 橄榄球 ” 式地区安全共同体 Olive Community: Idea of Security Community In the Asia-Pacific Region

2. Laying the foundation for enhancing strategic mutual trust and bridging the gap of Sino-US strategic intentions Sharing the Common Security Interests of the regional peace Economic Interdependence in the framework of so called “Chinamerica” 24

“ 双核模式 ” 的太平洋构架 Dual-core Processes for the Trans-Pacific Cooperative Architecture-building China 中国 US 美国 RCEP TPP 亚太经合组织（ APEC ） 亚太自贸区（ FTAAP ） The Pacific

3. Pursuing the common goal of freedom of navigation and enhancing the CBMs for maritime security between China and the US Sharing the security and economic interests laid on the sea lanes Trade and Investment over the maritime areas Interaction of the mil-to-mil relations CBMs for the maritime affairs CBMs for the maritime affairs Collaboration among the maritime powers 26

4. Facing the Common Challenges Countering non-traditional maritime security challenges Coordinating to set the new status quo in the South China Sea by China and the US 27