1. Robert Scollay New Zealand APEC Study Centre University of Auckland Evolving Trade and Economic Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region: Visions, Reality, Gaps, Layers

2. Visions Trans-Pacific East Asia-Centric

3. Trans-Pacific Vision Catalyst: end of Cold War and creation of APEC Accelerant: East Asia-North America economic interdependence Vehicles APEC encountered limitations of “concerted unilateral” approach to trade liberalisation FTAAP APEC-wide FTA TPP ‘stepping stone’ to FTAAP?

4. East Asia-Centric Vision Catalyst: East Asian economic crisis 1997-98 Spur to “East Asian regionalism” Accelerant: expansion of East Asian production networks Vehicles ASEAN Plus Three (China, Japan, Korea [CJK] and ASEAN) EAFTA (East Asian FTA) monetary and financial initiatives ‘Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) ASEAN Plus Six/East Asian Summit (including Australia, New Zealand, India) CEPEA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia) key vehicle for New Zealand engagement with East Asia

5. Today’s Reality “ Noodle Bowl”: Over 30 bilateral FTAs Multiple impulses (no single “vision”) Intra-East Asia Trans-Pacific East Asia-Australasia Plurilateral NAFTA, AFTA, P4 “ASEAN Plus FTAs” “ASEAN Plus One”: ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan, ASEAN-Korea AANZFTA (ASEAN-Australia and NZ FTA)

6. Gaps – East Asia ASEAN has completed links with all prospective EAFTA and CEPEA partners But CJK link is missing from both EAFTA and CEPEA can this link be completed? how? CJK FTA? implications for East Asian leadership CJK-ANZ link missing from CEPEA (except China-NZ) FTAs under negotiation: Australia-China, Australia-Japan, Australia- Korea, NZ-Korea under discussion: NZ-Japan India-CJK and India-ANZ links missing India-NZ FTA negotiations about to start Taiwan and Hong Kong major players in East Asian trade

7. Gaps – Trans-Pacific TPP currently a “stepping stone” Questions for moving beyond “stepping stone” status participation by Japan? Korea? China? ASEAN “buy-in”? beyond Singapore, Brunei, Viet Nam CJK link becomes a question mark here as well complicated by concerns over relative positions vis-à- vis USA could expanded TPP balance emerging G2?

8. Layers Layers of regional economic integration: Community-building agendas in APEC, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6, ASEAN Monetary and financial integration pursued mainly within ASEAN+3 at present Common markets ASEAN Economic Community, ANZ Single Economic Market Trade gains from trade: FTAAP > CEPEA > EAFTA (also as steps towards multilateralism) political economy: ? “decoupling” v. Trans-Pacific interdependence

9. Does Layering Provide a Basis for Coexistence of the Two Visions? East Asian and Trans-Pacific visions pursued within different layers of integration? Provide for both East Asian identity and trans- Pacific interdependence?