The Recovery? What recovery? STUC Highlands and Islands Conference 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

The Recovery? What recovery? STUC Highlands and Islands Conference 2014

Content Current state of the Scottish economy/labour market Highlands and Islands labour market Has austerity worked? What’s to come?

CURRENT STATE OF THE SCOTTISH ECONOMY AND LABOUR MARKET

Manufacturing, 2007 – Q4 2013

Manufacturing, 2007-Q4 2013

Employment and Unemployment rates (%), Scotland 2007-Dec 2013

Change in employment rate (%), 2008 peak – Dec 2013

Change in employment rate (%), year to Dec 13

Underemployment (level) Scotland, 2007-Dec 2013

Change in FT/PT work,

Reasons for working PT,

Employees/self-employed jobs,

HIGHLANDS AND ISLANDS LABOUR MARKET

Employment Rate (%), 2007-Dec 2013

ILO unemployment rate (%) 2007 – Dec 2013

Unemployment rate, WM constituency area, Dec 2013

WAGES & LIVING STANDARDS

Real wages, Total Full- time Part- time Median worker MaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemale Annual loss (%) Annual loss (£)

Median wage (£), 2013

HAS AUSTERITY WORKED?

Record on the deficit June ‘10 forecast Actual increase (forecast) 96 (forecast) 79 (forecast)

Record on net debt June ‘10 forecast Actual increase (forecast)

Record on GDP growth June ‘10 forecast Actual growth (forecast) 2.3 (forecast)

Record on business investment June ‘10 forecast Actual increase (forecast) 9.2 (forecast)

WHAT’S TO COME?

The IFS view… “It is…a Budget which leaves us with as little sense as we had before of quite how the very large public spending cuts still in the pipeline will actually be delivered”. The IFS also drew attention to, and questioned the consistency and effectiveness of an approach in which, “Permanent tax giveaways have been “paid for” by temporary revenue raisers and unspecified spending cuts”.

Back to the Future…OBR outlook March 2014 Growth will outperform its autumn 2013 forecasts in 2014 and 2015 but will then fall back below previous forecasts between ; The consumer will continue to drive growth but higher consumption will rely on a falling savings ratio rather than strong income growth; House price inflation will continue to outpace income growth; Household gross debt to income will spring back to pre-2008 levels by 2018; Real hourly earnings will not exceed 2008 levels till at least 2016 (given this is a forecast for average hourly earnings it’s reasonable to assume that median wages will take even longer to achieve pre-recession levels)