Sustainability Freshman Inquiry Jan. 27, 2011 Jeff Fletcher See also: Daily Log PageDaily Log Page

Logistics Extra Credit Opportunities –Tonight, Jan 27, 6 – 7:30 p.m. Chris Paine, Lincoln Hall, room to-portland-jan-27-28http:// to-portland-jan –Free Voluntary Simplicity Courses—see last slides Read Kolbert Chapters 8, 9, 10, afterward, and chronology for next Thursday –Reading notes Mercy Corp Fieldtrip Thursday Feb. 17, 2-5pm (including transportation time), $2.50 each Attendance –HEAT questions Signup for 1 on 1 meetings –Bring any old work, reading notes, questions Questions about HW2: Bad/Good Apples? Midterm next Tuesday, Feb. 1, Questions?

Complex Systems Yield Surprises Most models of systems are linear –Change in state predicted to be proportional to change in inputs Most real and complex systems are non-linear –Systems with feedback are often unpredictable –Small causes can have big effects Butterfly effect from Chaos theoryButterfly effect Chaos Demos Catastrophe theory: state is not reversible by reversing causeCatastrophe theory Logistic Equation: x t+1 = r x t (1-x t )Logistic Equation –Current financial crisis is great example Emergence

Examples from Atmosphere Is CO2 effect proportional to its abundance in atmosphere? –What proportion is CO2?What proportion is CO2 Caution in reading graphs What is ppm in percent? –nitrogen (78%), oxygen (21%) and argon (.93%) = 99.93% of atmosphere! Methane also has disproportionate effectsMethane Ozone hole: example of unintended consequences and irreversibility (video 2:20)video –Big hole until 2017, then hole will start to shrink; back to 1980 level in year 2070! –Example of not reversible, directionality

Water Vapor in Atmosphere Also a small proportion of atmosphere Effect is being debated:being debated –What would be example of positive feedback with water vapor and global warming? –What would be example of negative feedback?

Earth Relatively Closed System to Matter We don’t get any more atoms here on earth –We keep reusing the Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Oxygen, and Carbon atoms we have –Nature’s RecyclingNature’s Recycling Structure of these systems varies –N critical to proteins in living organisms and abundant in atmosphere, but mostly unavailable Depends on symbiotic relationship in plants with bacteria that “fix” nitrogen –O part of H20, C02, Carbohydrates (systems interconnected) Bodies burn carbohydrates -- Cn(H20)n (e.g. glucose C6H12O6 + 6O2 6CO2 + 6H20 + Energy) Plants can do this backwards with sun for E! Similar to burning hydrocarbons (only C + H, i.e. methane=natural gas) CH = CO2 + 2H20 + energy –C lots of it, but relatively little of it is cycling in atmosphere Most of the carbon is stored in geologic deposits - carbonate rocks, petroleum, and coal - formed from the burial and compaction of dead organic matter on sea bottoms. The carbon in these deposits is normally released by rock weathering. Extraction and burning of fossil fuels alters this system

Matter, Energy, Information Matter can be seen as acted upon by energy But understanding matter and energy relationship is not enough Information can organize matter and energy –Acorn Example

More Socially Relevant Systems Ideas –Optimization Local vs. global Cannot fully optimize system and its subsystems at the same time –Tension between systems and subsystems Examples –You and your liver –Efficient country and local autonomy/control –Game Theory Tragedy of the Commons Prisoner’s Dilemma, Chicken Discounting Future Maximin, Nash Equilibrium, Pareto Optimality

Summary Another way to think about systems: –Complex systems have inherent problems that are affected by their systems characteristics Characteristics worth thinking about include: –Dynamics (equilibria, +/- feedbacks, non-linearity, emergence, discontinuous change) –Structure of relationships Open vs closed (matter, energy, entropy) Degree of hierarchy Hierarchy of Matter, Energy, Information

Time Machines? In groups of 4 Identify different methods presented in the text so far for estimating past conditions What systems states in the past have been analyzed? What methods have been used?

Catastrophe: Time Machines How do we know about ancient atmosphere, temperatures, weather, fauna? Greenland Ice Cores (also Antarctic Ice Cores) –Atmosphere: trapped air bubbles –Temperature: isotopic composition of the ice (isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen different ratios depending on temperature)isotopic composition of the ice Lakebed sediment pollen samples –What kind of plants were growing at a particular location in the past Ocean and lakebed sediments for wind blown substances (e.g. dolomite)

Chapter 5 Climate models –P. 102 climate cells –NetLogo modeling programNetLogo modeling program Heat Forcing –2.5 w/m 2 Water vapor feedback Collapse of societies based on drought –Effect of global warming on US drought conditions –Survive 3 to 5 days without water depending on temperature –Survive weeks without food

Chapter 6 Amphibious homes ( hibian-houses-rising-water/) hibian-houses-rising-water/ Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI) –400ppm, 450pm, 500ppm? –CO2 levels near peak for last 3.5 billion years –Temp near peak in last 420 K years

Introduction to Kolbert, Ch. 7 Key Concepts: –Why C0 2 is a greenhouse gas and why we should care. The Planet Venus Carbon Cycle –Business as Usual (BAU). Pictures from: Gore Socolow –Stabilization Wedges: new_files/CMI_Stab_Wedges_Movie.swf new_files/CMI_Stab_Wedges_Movie.swf Explain the graph Note the definition of a wedge –How to make a Wedge: Policy + Economics + Technology (sometimes called Social Engineering).

Venus was Once a Twin of Earth “Venus Ruined by Greenhouse Gases” Atmosphere of super-dense C0 2 Average Surface Temp 457 deg C 876 deg F

Earth’s Carbon Cycle Natural & Human Sources Natural Sequestration Soil Forests Ocean

Where is the Carbon Coming From? Generating Electricity Transportation Deforestation Growing Food Manufacturing

Business As Usual (BAU) on Earth

Stabilization of CO 2 Emissions

Stabilization Wedges

15 Stabilization Wedges See printed descriptions of these for Group Exercise, also available at pages Socolow says… “Pick any 7 of these”

Results of Group Exercise We will collect all the papers in each category, read them anonymously, and critique selected ideas.