Export-Oriented Growth in East Asia 许阳（ 979 ）

The High-Performance Asian Economies (HPAEs) One of the most interesting economic stories of the last 50 years is how high-growth economies of East Asia have taken off. The World Bank coined the term HPAEs, to refer to the eight countries of Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. They vary in their income levels and living standards, but they share a number of economic policies, including an outward orientation and extremely rapid growth by world standards. This eight countries form the core of what has also been called the East Asian miracle, and their success continues to have a profound impact on the formation of economic policy around the world, particularly in Latin America and other developing regions.

Income and Economic Growth General Characteristics of Growth in the HPAEs The Role of Industrial Policies The Role of manufactured Exports Is There an Asian Model of Economic Growth

Income and Economic Growth 72 定律 如果某个变量（比如说工资）以 X 的速率增 长，那么该变量在大约 72/X 年后会翻一番。 例如韩国在 年间 8.2% 的增长速 度，就说明了它的实际人均 GDP 在 8.8 年后 会翻一番，而且在 10 年里，其收入将增加 一倍多。

Shared Growth One of the most remarkable features of growth in the HPAEs is that it was accompanied by rising economic equality. This feature is even more remarkable when it is realized that inequality in income and wealth was already relatively low at the start of the period of high growth. Since the 1950s pioneering work of the economist Kuznets,it was thought that growth in developing countries would first result in falling economic equality,followed later by rising equality. While Kuznets, work was based on measurements from a large number of countries,the East Asian experiences has called into question the idea that economic growth in developing countries follows a “Kuznets curve ”, in which equality first declines and then rises.

The conditions that led to greater income equality were rooted in the unique historical experiences of each country. Nevertheless, each of the HPAEs had a set of wealth-sharing mechanisms. This included land reform,free public education,free basic health care, and significant investments in rural infrastructures. such as clean water systems,transportation and communication systems. These policies did not equalize incomes,but they provided people with the tools they needed to raise their individual incomes and gave hope for the future.When purchasing power is spread more widely through a society, it increases the opportunities for small and medium scale entrepreneurs that produce for local market,and this help small companies develop into larger ones.

Rapid Accumulation of Physical and Human Capital Rapid accumulation of physical capital is synonymous with high levels of investment.Investment, in turn,depended on high savings rates.The level of savings in the HPAEs is considerably higher than in many other parts of the world.The explanations for high savings are varied.In part, it is a result of the rapid demographic transition experienced by those nations after World War Ⅱ. Another factor that increases both the savings and the investment was the absence of high inflation and the presence of stable financial institutions.The crisis of 1997 calls into question whether people will continue to have confidence in their financial institutions.Until the crisis,most investors acted as if they believed their financial savings were protected against loss of value through high inflation and against a collapse in the banking system. Investment in people was as important as the accumulation of physical capital.Public investment in education was focused on the primary and secondary levels.Educational dollars go farther at this level,and the social impact is much greater per dollar spent than at the university level.

Rapid Growth of Manufactured Exports In part,the success of the export promotion drives was the result of education policies that favored primary and secondary schooling. These policies created widespread literacy and an adaptable and easily trained labor force. In addtion,each of them pursued various export promotion policies.

Stable Macroeconomic Environments Confronted with crisis, policy responses were usually quick and appropriate. Responses to the 1997 crisis were no different in this regard. Keeping inflation under control Good management of both internal government and externally owed foreign debt

The Role of Industrial Policies The broad definition is policies that alter a nation ， s endowment in a way that does not favor particular industries. Narrow definition: targeted development of specific industries. In effect, targeted indusrial policies attempt to change the comparative advantage of a nation through the alteration of its industrial structure.

Did Industrial Policies Work With respect to the question, opinions range from “no effect” to “positive effect”. The reason for the lack of consensus on this important issue is that, in general, it, s difficult to measure the effects of policy interventions on growth rates. World Bank, s research : government interventions fostered economic growth, but, in general,industrial policies did not.

Is Export Promotion a Good Model for Other Regions If developing countries around the world begin to emphasize export promotion policies, an issue arises whether the world, s industrial nations can absorb the exports of a series of newly industrializing countries. One possibility is that these exports will undermine industries in industrial nations and lead to renewed trade conflicts and calls for protection Perhaps the greatest obstacle for countries that wish to replicate the export promotion policies of the HPAEs is the Uruguay Round of the GATT.

Is there an Asian Model of Economic Growth TFP (total factor productivity) growth reflects changes in output that are unrelated to changes in capital or labor inputs but that are related to new technologies, innovation, and organizational improvements. Over the long run, a majority of per capita income growth in high-income countries has resulted from increases in total factor productivity. While, when growth is decomposed into its various causes, what appears to account for the bulk of HPAEs growth is capital accumulation and not increased total factor productivity.

Contribution of Country/RegionGrowth of Output CapitalEducationTFP Indonesia Korea, Republic Malaysia Singapore Thailand Taiwan, China Latin America United States Industrial Nations