1. Long Run Growth Chapter 26

2. Wide Variation in Income per Capita, 2000

3. Determinants of Income Levels GDP per capita can be decomposed into labor productivity and average hours worked. Amongst developed countries there are large difference in output per capita due to variations in employment per person

4. Variation in Labor Force Participation

5. Main Differences in Countries are Due to Variation in Labor Productivity

6. Post war International Growth Facts After WWII, the developed countries untouched by the war had a big lead in terms of output per capita over war- damaged countries and colonial possessions. During the remaining years, some regions of the World have closed the gap (notably W. Europe and East Asia). Others have fallen behind.

7. Growth by Region The World Economy, A Millienial Perspective by Angus Madisson

8. East Asia GDP 1950 % of ACNZUS GDP 1999 % of ACNZUS Growth Rate Japan1,92621%20,43178%4.82% South Korea7708%13,31751%5.82% Hong Kong2,21824%20,35278%4.52% Taiwan93610%15,72060%5.76% Singapore2,21924%23,58290%4.82% Thailand8179%6,39824%4.20% Malaysia1,55917%7,32828%3.16% The World Economy, A Millienial Perspective by Angus Madisson

9. Growth Rates What are the implications of the productivity growth upsurge in the US? Rule of 70. If a country grows at g%, every year it will double in size every years. In 1996, US labor productivity was about 5% higher than France.

10. Determinants of Labor Productivity Capital per Worker, K/L, is the value of machines, structures and equipment used to produce goods. Human Capital per Worker, H/L is the average education and experience of the workforce Technology, T, is the available Techniques and Ideas for producing goods and efficiency with which they are used.

11. What increases growth rates? High levels of saving and investment Foreign Investment –Foreign investment may replace shortfall of domestic savings –Foreign investment may also come with foreign technology Education –A broad based education is more efficient Research and Development –develop the most advanced technologies

12. What increases growth rates? Cont. But technology is not just high tech. Allocative efficiency is needed to maximize output. Legal Structure and Stability Infrastructure Competition An efficient domestic financial system to channel savings to high return investments.

13. Aggregate Production Function To measure the quantitative effect of inputs on productivity, economists have developed production functions: Equations that map inputs to outputs.

14. Labor Productivity Function

15. Marginal Product of Capital/ Real Returns to Capital The marginal product of capital is the extra real output generated by investing in new capital equipment. –Capital investment has diminishing returns. Adding extra capital has a smaller and smaller impact in terms of extra output as more capital is added. MPK determines the revenues from investing in capital equipment. –Returns to investment are high when capital per worker is small and shrink as capital per worker grows.

16. Labor Productivity Function

17. Returns to capital Function

18. Long-term Engine of Growth Capital investment can lead to rapid growth for a time, but it cannot drive growth forever because it has diminishing returns. Eventually, the cost of new capital is not as great as its benefit. Long-term growth is driven by advances in new technology: The continuous development of new inventions and techniques for producing goods generates persistent advancement in output.

19. Labor Productivity Function T↑, H/L↑

20. Returns to capital Function T↑, H/L↑

21. Convergence Hypothesis Since relatively poor countries have higher returns to investment, they can use this to catch up with world leaders. Why don’t some countries catch up with world leaders? Because other factors such as technology and education levels vary across countries. McKinsey Institute finds big differences in allocative efficiency across countries.

22. Learning Outcomes Students should be able to: Convert national GDP into different currencies using the PPP method and the Exchange Rate method. Use the Rule of 70, to calculate how long it should take for output to double. Distinguish between the different sources of long-run growth Suggest policies to improve long-run growth