To Accompany Comprehensive, Alternate, and Texas Editions American Government: Roots and Reform, 10th edition Karen O’Connor and Larry J. Sabato  Pearson Education, 2009  Chapter 11 Political Socialization and Public Opinion

Political Socialization  The way people acquire their political values. 1.Family members are the first influences. Family political beliefs affect child’s beliefs. 2.Peers rank second only to parents on influence. Limited influence because of self-selection. 3.Schools build sense of patriotism and civic education at a young age. Exposure to many different beliefs.

Figure First-Year Student Ideology  Back Pg 381

Political Socialization 4. Churches and Religion influence social beliefs. 5. Media, especially television, has a strong influence. Some programming is geared toward civic involvement. Social Media is a growing influence as well. 6. Political Leaders and Political Parties.

Political Socialization  Religion still plays an important role. 82% said it was an important part of life in 2007 Gallup poll Religion  Often used to explain divisions by party  Protestants and Evangelists tend to be the most Conservative  Catholics are more divided, but lean Conservative  Jews and the nonreligious tend to be the most Liberal

Figure Religious Self-Identification  Back

Political Socialization  Demographics: race, ethnicity, gender, age, and region all shape beliefs as well.raceethnicitygender  White men tend to be more Conservative; Minorities tend to be more Liberal.  Women are more divided, but tend to be more Liberal on social issues.  Older people tend to be more Conservative; Younger people tend to be more Liberal.

AV- Racial and Ethnic Attitudes  Back

Political Socialization  Outside events can also have major impacts.  Pearl Harbor, Kennedy Assassination, September 11 attacks are key moments in political socialization and can change public opinion. Figure Views on Hurricane Katrina

History of Public Opinion Polls  These are interviews with samples of citizens used to estimate what the public is thinking.  George Gallup felt leaders must constantly take public opinion into consideration.  Successful straw polls by Literary Digest from  Straw polls are unscientific surveys, and those from this magazine worked for several years.  Literary Digest was incorrect in 1936; error in sample.

History of Public Opinion Polls  Literary Digest predicted a defeat for FDR in  Oversampled wealthy and did poll in September.  George Gallup made correct prediction that year.  Gallup was a pioneer in scientific public opinion polls.  Continues to be successful today,Continues to be successful today although Gallup was off in the 1948 Truman election due to sampling error itself.

Figure The Gallup Poll  Back

Conducting Public Opinion Polls  Determining content and phrasing questions are important.Determining content and phrasing questions  Wording is important, as it can skew the answers.  Selecting sample is next important part.  Common methods are random or stratified sampling.  Random Sampling gives everyone an equal chance to be chosen.  Stratified sampling uses census data to choose a representative sample of the area polled.

Figure Opinion on Gas Taxes  Back

Conducting Public Opinion Polls  Contacting respondents is becoming more scrutinized.  Random digit dialing is most popular method, used to call home telephone numbers.Random digit dialing  Problems have emerged with this recently.  Many younger people do not have land line phones, and have been underrepresented.  With Caller ID, many do not answer calls they do not recognize numbers for.

Figure Random Digit Dialing  Back

Types of Political Polls  Push polls are used to influence opinion.  Questions are used to get desired answers.  Tracking polls are taken on a daily basis.Tracking polls are taken on a daily basis  Creates the “horse race” effect that drives TV ratings.  Exit polls are taken after leaving a polling place.  These have shown flaws, as people do not always tell the truth on how they voted.

Figure Daily Tracking Poll, 2012  Back

Science of Public Opinion Polls  Back Science of Public Opinion Polls Pros and Cons of Public Opinion Polls

Shortcomings of Polling  Must consider margin of error.  Many do not recognize this in the poll, and can cause misunderstanding of it.  Makes close elections more difficult to call.  May make errors in selecting the sample.  Online polls have a problem with this.  2012 election showed importance of correct sampling.

Shortcomings of Polling  Polls limit respondents’ options.  People may not have enough information to answer.  Measures of intensity may be imprecise.  Often depends on the issue as to how much attention they pay to it.  Self-Selection creates sampling problems

Influences on Public Opinion  Political socialization (race, gender, region, etc).  Personal benefits.Personal benefits  People vote according to what is affecting them the most.  Some influences are also moral opinions about issues.  Political knowledge, or lack thereof are a big effect.Political knowledge  When we have more knowledge on a subject, our participation increases.

Table Gender Differences  Back

Table Political Knowledge  Back

Influences on Public Opinion  Lack of knowledge in geography affects foreign policy knowledge.  Many still do not know who leaders are in the government.  Cues from leaders, most often from the president, are important.  Political ideology also shapes opinions on larger issues and ideas about how government should work.

Figure Public Opinion on Iraq  Back

Effects of Public Opinion  May influence the course of public policy.  Some critics argue this weakens democracy.  Creation of bandwagon and underdog effects.

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