Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC LAEDC Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Office of the City Controller,

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Presentation transcript:

Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC LAEDC Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Office of the City Controller, Los Angeles February 10, 2015

U.S. Economy California Economy Los Angeles County City of Los Angeles Conclusion/Outlook Kyser Center for Economic Research Outline

U.S. Economy Kyser Center for Economic Research

U.S. Economy - accelerating Labor market – expansion Oil - gift World economy - struggling Stock market - volatility Kyser Center for Economic Research National Highlights

U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 2015: 5.7%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth MTM changes in thousands, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Kyser Center for Economic Research Link Between GDP and Employment GDP 2014: +2.4

Consumer Spending Business Spending Net Exports Government Purchases Kyser Center for Economic Research Sectors of Macroeconomy

Source: US Bureau of the Census Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Retail Trade & Food Sales Dec 2014: +3.5% Percent change from a year ago

Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Total New Vehicle Sales Millions of Vehicles Source: BEA

Kyser Center for Economic Research Key Interest Rates Source: Federal Reserve

Source: US Energy Information Administration Kyser Center for Economic Research Crude Oil Prices Dollars/barrel

Forecast Source: LAEDC (Feb 6, 2015) Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Economy to Accelerate in 2015

Kyser Center for Economic Research California Economy

State - faster Tech – leading Housing – potential Drought - constraint Kyser Center for Economic Research California Highlights

California Adding Jobs Faster than U.S. Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted

CA Unemployment Rate Falling Quickly Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research Unemployment Rate

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research Job Trends by California Metro Area Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted CALIFORNIA – Dec 2014: +320, % YTY

Forecast Source: LAEDC (Preliminary Forecast 1/26/15) Kyser Center for Economic Research California Economic Forecast

Los Angeles County Kyser Center for Economic Research

So Cal Economic Activity – broad Port Activity 2014 – 3 rd best Motion Picture & Sound Recording – stronger Housing - potential Kyser Center for Economic Research So Cal Highlights

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research Local Unemployment Rates Dec 2014

Kyser Center for Economic Research Job Trends by Industry – Los Angeles YTY % change in nonfarm employment Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Dec 2014: +70,600 jobs, +1.7% YTY

Kyser Center for Economic Research Los Angeles County Nonfarm Jobs Dec 2014: +70,600; +1.7% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division YTY % change in nonfarm jobs

Millions of TEUs Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research Dec 2014 YTD: +3.8%

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Transportation & Warehousing Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +4,100 jobs, +2.6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Dec 2014 YTY: +5.0% +6,400 jobs YTD: +6.5% Shoot Days: +9.6% YTY

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Manufacturing Employment Dec 2014 YTY – Durable: -2,200, -1.1% | Nondurable: -4,500, -2.8% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Manufacturing Trends Adding Jobs:  Machinery Mfg  Furniture  Miscellaneous Durable Goods Losing Jobs:  Petro-Chemical  Food  Aerospace  Electronics  Apparel/Textiles Kyser Center for Economic Research

L.A. County Aerospace Products Manufacturing Employment Dec 2014 YTY: -900 jobs, -2.3% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research Technology Employment Goods & Services Sectors Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS Economics Kyser Center for Economic Research Value of Manufacturing Output – California

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. Health Care and Social Assistance Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +22,000 jobs, +3.6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Professional & Business Services Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +19,300 jobs, +3.2% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Leisure & Hospitality Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +11,300 jobs, +2.6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Retail Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +7,200 jobs, +1.7% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research Real Estate

Kyser Center for Economic Research Home Sales & Median Prices Los Angeles County New and existing, single-family homes and condos Sales$ Thousands Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick

Residential Building Permits Issued in Los Angeles County Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, Preliminary Forecast LAEDC (1/27/15) Kyser Center for Economic Research

L.A. County Construction Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +5,000 jobs, 4.1% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Source: CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research Apartment Vacancy Rates – Southern California Percent vacancy, quarterly averages

Kyser Center for Economic Research Apartment Rents – Southern California Source: CA Real Estate Research Council

Kyser Center for Economic Research Industrial Vacancy Rates – Southern California Percent vacant, quarterly averages Source: Cushman and Wakefield

Kyser Center for Economic Research Office Vacancy Rates – Southern California Percent vacancy, quarterly averages

City of Los Angeles Kyser Center for Economic Research

Labor Force & Employment City of Los Angeles Source: EDD

Kyser Center for Economic Research Unemployment Rate City of Los Angeles Source: CA EDD

Kyser Center for Economic Research Total Taxable Sales in City of Los Angeles Source: CA BOE/LAEDC estimates/forecasts

2015 Southern California Forecast Kyser Center for Economic Research

Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs Southern California Outlook Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research THANK YOU! Kyser Center for Economic Research