17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 1 IOPD XI 2008 Berlin, 17 June 2008 GMO Policies in the EU – Consequences for the International Trade in Oilseeds and Feedstuffs and the EU‘s Livestock Sector Klaus Schumacher Toepfer International

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 2 Rising GMO Acreage Worldwide - mln ha - Source:ISAAA

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 3 Rising GMO Acreage Worlwide - mln ha - Source:ISAAA

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 4 Share of GMOs in Total Plantings in 2007/08 (%)

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 5 EU Approval System for GMOs  No import, no processing, no cultivation without EU approval  Zero tolerance without approval  Approval process – many steps:  EFSA risk assessment  Standing Committee  Agricultural Council for import & processing  Environmental Council for cultivation  Duration up to 5 years (USA: months)  35 applications pending

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 6  No maize imports into the EU from the US since 1997  2007: GA21 restricts corn imports from Argentina  Corngluten feed imports reduced from 5 mln t to zero  DDG from 1.5 mln t to zero  2007: in addition, export stop for maize from Ukraine  Remaining supplier: Brazil  Price for Brazilian maize 50 to 70 €/t higher compared to US corn Impact of lack of timely approvals and zero- tolerance policy. Example: Maize imports into the EU

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 7 Trade Impact on the European Market EU Corngluten Feed and DDGS Imports declined sharply - mln tons - Herculex

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 8 More Problems to Come in 2008/2009  USA: 1. Soybeans: in 2008 only seed production, commercialization to start in Bayer LL soybeans - Monsanto RR2 - Pioneer Optimum GAT (not yet fully approved in the US) 2. Corn: plantings 2007 and VT Rootworm RR2 - Agrisure (MIR 604) - more in the pipeline for 2010  Argentina/Brazil: no new events yet approved, but quick adaptation expected

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 9 State of play of new Events in the EU 1.Soybeans: - RR2 at EFSA stage since July Optimum GAT at EFSA stage since Sept Bayer LibertyLink Agricultural Council in July 2.Corn: - all new Events are at EFSA stage since mid 2007 (Agrisure MIR 604 since 2005) 3. Canola: T45 at the Standing Committee

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 10 Reminder: Zero Tolerance for Events not yet approved in the EU !

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 11 Separation of bulk commodities in the supply chain  „Bulk Commodity Trade“ is aggregation of several small charges to bigger units (Realisation of Economies of Scale)  Total separation of goods within the supply chain is not possible. Even on the farm this is hard to achieve.  Not origins or attributes are traded, but qualities  Threshold levels are common (e.g. foreign material in malting barley). Same is needed for GMO’s.  Highly sensitive GMO-tests show already smallest contents of GMO (e.g. HXRW corn)

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 12 Source: USDA, OilWorld, ACTI EU-27: Protein Feed Consumption (mln t)

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 13 EU-27: Consumption of 36.5 mln t Soybean Meal - Imports and Domestic production - Source: USDA, ACTI Produced from EU soybeans: 0.8 mln t (2%) Imported soybean meal 24.1 mln t (66%) Produced from imported soybeans 11.5 mln t (32%)

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 14 Source: USDA, Eurostat, ACTI EU-27: Soybean Imports (mln t) /052005/062006/072007/082008/09 USABrazilArgentinaOthers

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 15 Source: USDA, Eurostat, ACTI EU-27: Soybean Meal Imports (mln t) /052005/062006/072007/082008/09 BrazilArgentinaUSAothers

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 16 Breakdown of EU soybean meal consumption  Total consumption in 2006/07 about 36.5 mln t  90% are labelled (“produced from genetically modified soybeans”)  Share of soybean meal without labeling requirements: about mln t or 10%  10% are not labelled, thus content of GMO is below 0.9%  Major markets for non-GMO: France, UK, Germany

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 17 Expectations and Reality  Market power of the EU  Political commitments of South American countries  Enforceability of legal provisions in South America  New suppliers of soybeans

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 18 Future of EU Feedstuff Supply – Actions Urgently Needed  Corngluten feed & DDG no longer available in EU  Many new GMOs are in the pipeline  Traces of 2 nd generation of transgenic soybeans to be found in US crop 2008 & 2009 in South America  Consequences for the EU: Significant shortfall of protein feed The competitiveness of the UE livestock sector will decrease significantly Increasing problems for food processing sector

17 June 2008IOPD XI 2008Chart 19  Improve EU approval process  Implement thresholds for LLP of events not yet approved in the EU  Complete CODEX process  Assure timely and parallel requests for approval in exporting and importing countries  Harmonize sampling and testing procedures Future of EU Feedstuff Supply – Actions Urgently Needed