Measuring Data Quality in the BLS Business Register Richard Clayton Sherry Konigsberg David Talan WiesbadenGroup on Business Registers Tallin, Estonia September 27-30, 2010

Outline Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Program Concepts and Sources Business Register Metrics Data Uses / Users Publications

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly census of employers covered under UI and federal employers covered under UCFE

QCEW – Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Quarterly data (frequent) Released 6.5 months after reference period - timely 9.1 million records and growing 130 million in employment Units, employment and wages 6 digit NAICS and county, ownership UI based, mandatory collections to run UI  Wages- 98% reported data  Employment- 97% reported data  Units- 95% reported data 4

Investment in Quality Source: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)  Administrative data from Unemployment Insurance filings (UI) (ES-202 Program)  Huge investment in improving raw administrative data  Two supplemental collections – ARS- Annual Refiling Survey – MWR- Multiple Worksite Report

QCEW Concepts Employer Establishment Reporting unit Multi-establishment employer QCEW

Business Register Sources UI Status Determination Form UI Quarterly Contribution Report BLS Multiple Worksite Report BLS Federal Government Report BLS Annual Refiling Survey Forms

Employers State UI Tax Unit QCEW State BLS Business Register (QCEW) Initial Status Forms Contributions Reports Federal Gov't Reports Unit Multiple Worksite Reports EQUI deliverable ARS Surveys Business Register Data Flow

Status Determination Form Data obtained: UI account number business name business address employer identification number ownership status industry status multi-establishment employer status predecessor information

Quarterly UI Contribution Report Data obtained: monthly employment total wages taxable wages employer contributions

Multiple Worksite Report Data obtained: establishment address worksite description monthly employment by establishment total wages by establishment

Federal Government Report federal employment and wages

Annual Refiling Forms Verify and update: industry codes geographic codes ownership status business names and addresses multi-establishment status

Enhanced Quarterly UI File submitted to BLS by States Contains: business names and addresses identification and classification information employment and wage data

The EQUI File Updates: BLS Business Register Employment and wage data Annual refiling code changes

BLS Business Register Updated each quarter Over 9 million records Longitudinal database Linked to create a time series for each establishment BLS Business Register

Employers State UI Tax Unit QCEW State BLS Business Register (QCEW) Initial Status Forms Contributions Reports Federal Gov't Reports Unit Multiple Worksite Reports EQUI deliverable ARS Surveys Business Register Data Flow

Business Register Metrics Quality – Measure of Reported Data Relevant Timely Accurate

19 Data Quality Metric

20 Quality Metric: High Linkage Rates

Data Quality Communication with States Metrics reports  Flash Report  Business Register metrics report

Flash Report Monitors data quality received from States  Number of reported units  Number of imputations  Number of prorations  Number of missing units  Number of records with invalid area/county and industry codes

Percentage of Unclassified NAICS in State B in Comparison to the National Average of Unclassified NAICS Historical Tracking

Business Register Metrics Generated after the data are linked Monitors:  System software  Data quality  Quality of analyst manual matches Evaluates:  The number and type of manual matches (breakout/consolidation)  Number of new QCEW businesses each quarter  Number of births/deaths each quarter  Number of unmatched records  Number of weighted match records

25 Quality Metric: High Linkage Rates

Timeliness January 1 – March 31 = Reference Quarter March 31 – April 30 = Reporting Period May 1 – July 29 = UI Processing QCEW Extract from UI QCEW Edit & Review July 30 – Sept 30 = State File sent to BLS BLS Review State Updates Received October 7 = Publication Lag = 6 months and 1 week

Accuracy Thorough editing and review at the state, regional, and national levels each quarter 196 Interactive Edits State’s contact businesses to correct questionable data and/or provide missing data Development of new state system with even more powerful editing and review capabilities

Continuous Progress and Improvements 1991 –1992:Multiple Worksite Reports - county Level 2001:Longitudinal Database completed 1998 – 2001 :NAICS Implemented 2002:Quarterly Publication Initiated 2003:Business Employment Dynamics (BED) :Geocoding started 2004 : NAICS History Released (Sept 2004) 4 Week Acceleration Completed 2005: BED Firm Size Data 2007 : NAICS 2007 Conversion (2007/Q1) 2010 : QCEW Mapping Tool BED Expansion

UI Tax Rate & Actuarial Analysis UI-Covered Employment Local Area Unemployment Personal Income (BEA) Gross Domestic Product (BEA) Economic Forecasting Current Employment Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics Job Creation/Destruction Size Class Dynamics Business Survival Rates Geocoded Establishments Occupational Employment Statistics Occupational Safety and Health Statistics Current Employment Statistics National Compensation Survey Industrial Price Program Occupational Safety and Health Statistics Programmatic Uses Benchmarking (Employment Base) General Economic Uses Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages Data (QCEW/ Analytical Uses Sampling Mass Layoff Statistics State Revenue Projections Jobs Openings & Labor Turnover Survey Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey Quarterly Press Releases, Annual Employment and Wages Local Economic Development Indicators Clusters Analysis Shift Share Industry Diversity Indexes Location Quotients Federal Funds Allocation $175 Billion (HUD, USDA, HCFA/CHIP) Minimum Wage Studies Uses Of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data (QCEW) Local Economic Impact Response Planning Local Government Services Planning Interagency Data Uses Improve CPS After 2000 Census LEHD Industry Code Sharing Local Transportation Planning

Employment and Wage Data number of establishments, monthly employment, and quarterly wages Available by: geographical area industry code size WAGE S

QCEW Publications Annual Bulletin via the Web  Employment and Wages  Released in Fall After Year’s End Quarterly Press Releases  County  Business Employment Dynamics

Quarterly County Employment and Wages QCEW County BLS release Reports fastest growing counties Covers counties with more than 75,000 employees Accompanies new BLS release of detailed county data each quarter

QCEW Mapping Tool 34

QCEW Mapping Tool 35

Uses of Geocoded Data 36

Business Demography Statistics Linked longitudinally QCEW data to create a time series – Unit of analysis is the Establishment Scope – Private sector, excludes private households 6.8 million establishments 107 million employment Reveals the dynamics of the labor market. Shows gross flows as well as net employment changes

38 Uses Business Demography data will: Provide policy-relevant series at all levels of government Assess the employment dynamics of the business cycle Provide new indicators on the health of the labor market

Business Demography Data Series Available National Total Private National NAICS Sector National Firm Size State Total Private Size of Employment Change (National) Annual (National/State) Birth Death (National/State) Age/Survival (National) September 2003 May 2004 December 2005 August 2007 September 2008 May 19, 2009 August,

Accessing the QCEW and BED Macrodata BED: QCEW:

Contact Information Richard Clayton David Talan Sherry Konigsberg