(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) Coastal Systems Primary Source: IPCC WG-2 Chapter 6 - Coastal.

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Presentation transcript:

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) Coastal Systems Primary Source: IPCC WG-2 Chapter 6 - Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas (Plus Chapters 7-16) (Plus parts of WG-2 Chapters 7-16)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) Why Study Coastal Regions? Concentrations of … population population commerce commerce recreation recreation pollution pollution … … Climatic impacts intensified by the concentration

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) Example: Salt Water Intrusion Development of fresh water resources causes sea water to intrude on fresh water aquifers. Affects wetlands. Rising sea level increases intrusion.

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) Major Climate Change Factors - Coastal Regions

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) North American Sea-Level Rises What rise?? Different rise??

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) Vulnerable Coastal Deltas (> 1 M) (50, M) (5, ,000) Populations potentially displaced by sea level trends to 2050

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) Mississippi Delta Post-Katrina RED = Converted to open ocean storm surge: 8.5 meters ASL

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) New Orleans: 3 Days after Katrina Lower 9th Ward Storm surge ~ 5 meters Defenses ~ 4.5 meters

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) New York - Return Periods of Storm Surges AR4 rises: ~ 1 ft = 0.3 m IS92a scenario (Jacob et al. 2007)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) New York - Elevations Below 3 Meters (Jacob et al. 2007)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) Consequences & Costs of Sea-Level Rise A2 A1B B1 Assumes uniform population growth

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) Consequences of Long-Term Sea-Level Rise Greenland melting: sustained ˚ warming 100s of years “commitment to sea-level rise

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) Adaptation Strategies - How? Three trends: - “soft protection” and “retreat” strategies (Klein et al. 2001)- reliance on information technology - enhanced awareness of need to adapt

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) What about small-island nations? Seychelles Cape Verde Islands

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Costal Regions (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 6,7-16) END Coastal Systems