1. Observed Impacts of Climate Change AIACC Project Development Workshop Trieste, Italy June, 2002 Potential AIACC Contributions Cynthia Rosenzweig crosenzweig@giss.nasa.gov

2. IPCC Definition of Climate Change A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.

3. GISS, 2001 1970-2000 IPCC Working Group I “A collective picture of a warming world”

4. Studies using remote sensing IPCC WG II “Recent regional climate changes... have already affected many physical and biological systems.” Rosenzweig and Iglesias, 2001

5. Physical and Biological Systems Hydrology and Glaciers: Glacier retreat, decrease in snow-cover extent/earlier snowmelt, reduction in annual duration of lake and river ice Sea Ice: Decline in sea-ice extent and thickness Animals and Plants: Poleward and elevational shifts in range, change in species abundance, phenology (earlier reproduction and migration), physiological and morphological adaptation

6. High Altitude and High Latitude Changes Mountain vegetation Grabherr et al., 1997 Length of growing season, Finland Carter, 1998

7. Criteria and Confidence Estimation Studies examined >600 species 10% showed no change 90% showed change 20% changed in unexpected way 80% changed in expected way Probability that 452 species out of 564 are changing in expected direction by chance alone is highly negligible (P<<0.00001) Impact shows trend over time, temperature shows trend over time, impact and temperature are functionally related. >/= 20 years

8. IPCC WG II “There are preliminary indications that some human systems have been affected by recent increases in floods and droughts.” IPCC WGII, 2001 Rainfall fluctuations in the Sahel

9. Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NOAA AVHRR

10. Human Systems 1.Some part of upward trend in historical disaster losses due to flooding in North America (Pielke and Downton, 2001). 2.Persistent drying trend in parts of Africa has affected food production, including freshwater fisheries, industrial and domestic water supplies, hydropower generation (Magadza, 1996; Benson and Clay, 1998; Chifamba, 2000). Preliminary Indications that Some Human Systems Have been Affected by Recent Increases in Floods and Droughts IPCC WGII TAR, 2001

11. Caveats Length of time-series, number of replications, census sites, species, availability of climate data Presence of multiple factors Land-use change, pollution, biotic invasion Spatial scales of climate and impacts processes Human system impacts especially difficult to prove

12. Research Questions How can effects of changing regional climates best be detected? Are observed effects of regional climate changes consistent with functional understanding and modeled predictions of impacts? Do observed effects provide information about adaptation and vulnerability to climate change? Are impacts of observed climate trends prevalent across diverse systems, multiple sectors, and geographic regions? Is there a coherent signal in patterns of observed impacts?

13. Potential AIACC Contributions Wide geographical and system distribution of studies on observed climate change** Physical and Biological Systems*** Human Systems*** Agriculture, Food Security, Health, Water Resources Sea-level Rise, Coastal Zones***, Urban Areas Impacts and Adaptations*** **Rising temperature, trends in extreme events

14. 46 48 50 52 54 19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000 TEMPERATURE (F) AVERAGE TEMPERATURE Slope=.2 F / Decade 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000 PRECIPITATION (INCHES) PRECIPITATION Slope=.1 Inches / Decade NOTE: 23 station average, corrected for urban heat island effect Historical Climate Trends Observed Impacts Research Metro East Coast Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2001

15. 1.2 (+/- 0.5) Adm in NYC/100ppb ozone/day/1,000,000 people Thurston et al., 1992 Projected increase in MEC hospital admissions 2030 819 2100 3,319 Kinney, Shindell, et al., 2001 Trend in Tmax MEC, 2001 Stakeholder: NYC Department of Health Public Health Household income Incidence of asthma Stakeholder: New York City Department of Health Kinney et al., 2001

16. Sea-level Rise, Infrastructure, and Wetland Loss Stakeholders: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey National Park Service, Gateway National Recreation Area Jacob et al., 2001 Hartig et al., 2001

17. Climate Data Regional trends in temperature, precipitation, variability Timeframe varies with system and focus Observed met. data ~1860 - present Climate shift ~1976 Monthly data adequate for many studies Gridded vs. site data

18. Links to Monitoring Programs IGBP PAGES, NASA/INPE LAMBADA, GCOS LTER sites, MAB Biosphere Reserves Links to Population and Land-Use Data CIESIN population data UMD, EROS land-use change data