MPU 2011 April 20 April 2011

Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate.

Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication.

Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.

Figure 4. CPIF with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Figure 5. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally- adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 6. Unemployment Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Pre-1987 data have been spliced by the Riksbank. The forecast represent aged

Figure 7. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Pre-1993 data have been spliced by the Riksbank.

Figure 8. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Figure 9. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.

Figure 10. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100 Source: The RiksbankNote. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.

Figure 11. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.

Figure 12. GDP in different regions and countries Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally- adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 13. GDP-gap and RU-indicator Percentage deviation from potential level and standard deviation Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. GDP gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is 1.

Figure 14. Hours gap Percentage deviation from potential level Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank’s assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.

Table 1. Repo rate forecast Per cent, quarterly average values

Table 2. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change

Table 3. Summary of financial forecasts Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified

Table 4. International conditions Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified

Table 5. GDP by expenditure Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified

Table 6. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified

Table 7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data