RIDING THE RIVER OF ADAPTATION CDMX 19 APRIL 2016

Many investment decisions have long term consequences. Infrastructure in particular can shape development for decades or centuries, a duration that often extends beyond infrastructure’s lifetime because the economic system reorganizes itself around them. — Hallegatte et al., Investment Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty, World Bank Many investment decisions have long term consequences. Infrastructure in particular can shape development for decades or centuries, a duration that often extends beyond infrastructure’s lifetime because the economic system reorganizes itself around them. — Hallegatte et al., Investment Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty, World Bank HOOVER DAM, USA “WATER IS THE MEDIUM THROUGH WHICH HUMANS WILL EXPERIENCE MOST OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE”

BOTTOM-UP ASSESSMENT: DECISION SCALING Developed ~2008 by the Great Lakes International Joint Commission (IJC) to balance multiple stakeholder needs and resolve GCM uncertainty The story of the development of decision scaling: decision-scaling risk assessment 1. Define your system’s breaking points 2. Assemble multiple climate data sources and link to breaking points 3. Assess plausibility and test vulnerabilit y Focuses on stakeholder tolerance of risk How robust is the system? Non-climate + climate factors No assumptions on time of impact, particular GCMs, or scenarios Can we use additional data sources?

SEQUENTIAL DECISION MAKING THROUGH ADAPTATION PATHWAYS Action B Action C Action D Action A Haasnoot et. al, 2013, Global Env Change

CONFRONTING CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY: THE DECISION TREE FRAMEWORK Ray/Brown, August 2015 Guides development bank loan officers in quantifying climate risks for water investments Step-wise process, now in widespread pilot projects

ECO-ENGINEERING DECISION SCALING: EEDS et al., 2016, Nature Climate Change

SUPPORTING WATER MANAGERS TO MAINSTREAM ADAPTATION AGWAGUIDE.ORG/CRIDA/ Performance response How do we diagnose quantitative risk with stakeholders? How do we define long-term decision making given ongoing uncertainty? Can we integrate ecological and infrastructure risk simultaneously? DECISION SCALING EEDS ADAPTATION PATHWAYS PUBLISHING JULY 2016

CLIMATE BONDS STANDARDS AGWAGUIDE.ORG/GREENBONDS/ Focus on water-related investments issued as “green” or “climate” bonds Both technical and industry working groups (~40 individuals, >40 from AGWA) Integrates climate mitigation &adaptation into a single decision tree In 2016, developing resilient natural infrastructure standards Focus on water-related investments issued as “green” or “climate” bonds Both technical and industry working groups (~40 individuals, >40 from AGWA) Integrates climate mitigation &adaptation into a single decision tree In 2016, developing resilient natural infrastructure standards

Join AGWA — Work with AGWA john h matthews CDMX 19 april 2016 AGWAGuide.org Alliance4Water.org