a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 26 October 2011 Title: WRF Cloud and Moisture Verification with GOES Status: New GOES Utilization Project Duration: 2 years Project Leads: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/RAMMB, Louie Grasso, CIRA, Other Participants: Bob Rabin, National Severe Storms Lab Jack Kain, National Severe Storms Lab Steve Weiss, Storm Prediction Center 1

b. Project Summary Use output from NSSL’s WRF-ARW model to generate synthetic GOES imagery Compare the synthetic bands to observed GOES data Compute validation statistics and provide the information to the model developers for future model version improvement 2

3 Synthetic GOES-R ABI µm band from the WRF-ARW’s 14-hour forecast Observed GOES µm band This is an example of the type of comparison to be performed, except the GOES µm band will be simulated instead of µm Note how the model completely missed the MCS over Iowa; a statistical comparison will identify this error Infrared imagery valid on 28 July 2011 at 14 UTC

c. Motivation / Justification Daily weather forecast is one of NOAA’s Mission Goals Cloud and moisture fields in high resolution models are critical –They affect incoming and outgoing radiation, which in turn have major impacts on subsequent meteorological processes, such as the formation and maintenance of convection –In the past, only a few model parameters, such as 500 mb heights and surface precipitation, were used to validate models A method is already in place to generate synthetic satellite imagery at CIRA from the WRF-ARW A similar comparison between the HWRF and GOES data has uncovered some previously unknown biases The ability to leverage both of these projects allows for a relatively modest budget 4

d. Methodology 5 Collect output from the NSSL WRF-ARW over a sufficiently long time period (at least 3 months) Use the output to generate synthetic imagery for the GOES-13 band 3 (6.5 µm) and band 4 (10.7 µm) –For each 00Z model run, generate the hourly imagery for the 9- to 36-hour forecasts Match each forecast image with the corresponding GOES-13 image Perform statistical comparisons between the forecast and observed images –Look for brightness temperature biases, both low- and high-level cloud timing and location biases, the timing and placement of convection, etc. –Investigate object-based verification

e. Expected Outcomes Validation statistics for the NSSL WRF-ARW –Information on biases in cloud properties will be used to improve the model, including the microphysics package, potentially –Biases in water vapor can be used to identify problems in the model’s water (vapor, clouds, precipitation, etc.) distribution An improved WRF-ARW will benefit forecasters at both the Storm Prediction Center and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) –Both centers regularly use the model in their daily forecasts 6

f. Possible Path to Operations 7 After the verification code is developed, it can be automated to provide real-time cloud statistics –This information is useful for operational forecasters in real time Results of this study will be passed along to developers of the operational WRF

g. Milestones FY12 Collect at least 3 months of output from the NSSL WRF-ARW Generate synthetic GOES-13 data for the 6.5 and 10.7 µm bands for the 9- to 36-hour forecasts for each available model run Collect the corresponding GOES-13 imagery and match each of the forecasts with the appropriate GOES-13 scan FY13 Compute validation statistics for the 3+ months of data and provide the results to NSSL Explore object-based verification Begin working toward a real-time verification system Prepare a publication to a peer-reviewed journal 8

g. Funding Request (K) Funding SourcesProcurement Office Purchase Items FY12FY13 GIMPAPStAR Total Project Funding $49K StAR Grant to CIRA $47K$42K StAR Federal Travel $2K$5K StAR Federal Publication $2K StAR Federal Equipment StAR Transfers to other agencies Other Sources 9

g. Spending Plan FY12 FY12 $49,000 Total Project Budget 1.Grant to CIRA - $47,000 –33% FTE - for Louie Grasso ($45K) –Travel - $2K for Louie Grasso’s travel to a conference 2.Federal Travel– $2,000 - D. Lindsey to travel to NSSL in May/June

g. Spending Plan FY13 FY13 $49,000 Total Project Budget 1.Grant to CIRA - $42,000 –31% FTE - for Louie Grasso ($42K) 2.Federal Travel - $5,000 –D. Lindsey travel to NSSL ($2K) –B. Rabin at least two trips to CIRA ($3K) 3.Federal Publication Charge – $2,000 11