New Zealand Population 4.2 million Likely to be 5.1 million by 2051 Low population density Lots of natural resources

Key Impacts Regional Hotter, drier North and East, drought in wine producing regions South Island wetter, good for hydro catchments General Good – CO2 fertilization, less cold deaths, longer growing seasons Bad – coastal stress from sea level rise, invasion ecology and disease

Largest export, 5% of GDP, biggest share of GHG Future trajectories largely determined by climate Powerful farming lobby eg Fonterra Agriculture in NZ Eg apples, beer, wine – longer growing season – areas will have to shift southward – new pests bigger ranges, new pesticides? NZ GHG Emissions 2005

Adaptation Considerations Industry’s best & worst practices Role of government in adaptation? - Regulation, Taxes, Subsidies, Education, Do nothing Agriculture and Branding Reconcile policy with ‘Clean, Green’ branding Role of genetic modification Mitigation and Adaptation Combine adaptation & mitigation -Gain in adaptation -Suffer with mitigation policies