Md. Nurul Alam ENGR 549

 City of Kelowna  UBC  Statistics Canada 2

 Background  Methodology  Outcome  Future Directions 3

 A large, destructive fire that spreads quickly.  A wildfire is any uncontrolled fire in combustible vegetation that occurs in the countryside or a wilderness area. ( Source: Federal Fire and Aviation Operations Action Plan) 4

Natural Causes  lightning,  volcanic eruption,  sparks from rockfalls, and  spontaneous combustion. Human Induced Causes Source : National Wildfire Coordinating Group. 5

6 * Source: B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, 2008

7 YearTotal Fires Total Hectares Lost Total Loss (millions) Average Hectares Lost per Fire People-Caused Lightning- Caused ,419$ (28.7%)2184(71.3%) ,240$ (42%)1176(58%) ,440$ (42.8%)919(57.2%) ,265$ (40.2%)1536(59.8%) ,588$ (60.6%)385(39.4%) ,518$ (28.4%)1713(71.6%) ,053$ (38.8%)1514(61.2%) ,539$ (51.1%)872(48.9%) ,677$ (62.2%)479(37.8%) ,673$ (45.3%)842(54.7%) ,581$ (50.4%)599(49.6%) Average ,957$ % %

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Started on Aug 16, days later, it was contained 70% 60 fire departments, 1,400 armed forces troops and 1,000 forest fire fighters took part in controlling the fire, but were largely helpless in stopping the disaster. 25,912 ha burned 239 homes lost 30,000 people evacuated 2003 Okanagan Mountain Park Fire 9

10 AuthorComments Ferdous et al. (2011) The authors defined event tree analysis (ETA) as the technique to describe the consequences of an initiating event and to measure the likelihoods of possible outcomes of the event. Badreddine and Ben Amor (2010) The analytical hierarchical process (AHP) has been utilized to add the preventive and mitigation barriers within the Bow-tie (ETA & FTA) model Rinaldi (2009)Utilization of GIS in fire risk assessment Sun et al. (2007)The study shows that, the utilization of GIS in the model has endorsed the efficiency of the risk assessment system for the potential fire hazard.

Inventory Data Collection Mapping with GIS Risk Assessment with Event Tree 11 Simplified Methodology

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13 26 nos 3 Km X 3 Km Grids

14 Identification and Warning Fire Service ReactionDuring DisasterAftermath Proposed Event Tree Wildfire (1) Identification and Warning System Fails (p i ) Identification and Warned (1-p i ) Identification & Warning Fire Service Reaction During Disaster After Math Fire Service Fails to React (Pf) Fire Service Reacted Effectively (1- Pf) Lack of Hydrant (Ph) Adequate Hydrant (1- Ph) Community Fails to React (Pc) Community Reacted Effectively (1- Pc) Community Fails to React (Pc) Community Reacted Effectively (1- Pc) HighMediumLow

15 Identification and Warning Fire Service ReactionDuring DisasterAftermath Results from Event Tree

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17 HighMediumLow 3.039%96.876%0.085%

Geographic Information System 18

19 Fire Stations Fire Hazard Mapping

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Flammability Index = f (%of Wooden Buildings, %Plantation, %of Buildings with Poundings, F.H.Score, F.S.Score, %of Fuel Station) Casualty Index= f (% population under 5 years, % of population over 60 years, % of Masonry or Reinforced concrete building) 21

22 Source: FEMA-HAZUS

 Development of Fuzzy-based Flammability Index for Fire Hazard  Development of Fire Fragility Functions and Fire Fragility Curves for City of Kelowna  Uncertainties may be Accounted for Each Branch of the Event Tree 23

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 Tool for Wildfire Risk Assessment  Guideline for the Fire Fighters  Guideline for Scenario-based Contingency Planning 26

 Public Safety Canada (PSC) Canadian Disaster Database. Public Safety Canada: Ottawa.  Castanet Okanagan Mountain Fire Watch. Accessed April, 2008 from  Ferdous, R. Khan, F. Sadiq, R. Amyotte, P. and Veitch, B Fault and event tree analyses for process systems risk analysis: uncertainty handling formulations. Risk Analysis, Vol. 31, No. 1 27

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Questions? 29