Jiliang Ma Institution of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Fan Li * LICOS – Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance KU Leuven, Belgium

  History of Silk Road  New mission of One Belt One Road Initiative  China and Central Asia agricultural trade  Determinates of Bilateral agricultural trade  Conclusion and implication Framework

  History of Silk Road  New mission of One Belt One Road Initiative  China and Central Asia agricultural trade  Determinates of Bilateral agricultural trade  Conclusion and implication Framework

  The Silk Road formally started from Han Dynasty, when Zhang Qian ( an envoy) visited Western Region in 138 B.C and 119 B.C.  Named by Ferdinand von Richthofen (1833—1905)  Seidenstrassen History of Silk Road

  Tang Dynasty: History of Silk Road Period 1:  Strength the connection with Western regions and Central Asia along the silk Road.  Establish the specific government department responsible for the trade communication along silk road Period 2:  An Shi Rebellion happened and the empire collapse.  Western Region lost control and the trade on silk road was halted.

  Yuan Dynasty Genghis Khan unified China The trade along the Silk Road revived and reached its peak History of Silk Road Marco Polo traveled along the Silk Road;

 History of Silk Road Commodities traded from China to other countres along Silk Road

 History of Silk Road Commodities traded from other countries to China along Silk Road

  History of Silk Road  New mission of One Belt One Road Initiative  China and Central Asia agricultural trade  Determinates of Bilateral agricultural trade  Conclusion and implication Framework

 One Belt One Road Initiative The Silk Road Economic Belt the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

  To consolidate and upgrade existing infrastructure;  To improve cross border trade;  to promote a greater financial integration One Belt of One Road: Mission

  What have been done by China Part Forming Central and local “one belt one road” subject plans and making specific policies to promote further cooperation; Sign memorandum of understanding with 30 countries; Preparing the economic corridors; Capacity cooperation agreement investment reaches 230 billion dollars between China and Kazakhstan. One Belt of One Road: Mission

  History of Silk Road  New mission of One Belt One Road Initiative  China and Central Asia agricultural trade  Determinates of Bilateral agricultural trade  Conclusion and implication Framework

 China and Central Asia agricultural trade  The agricultural products export from China to Central Asia is increasing steadily since the 2000;  The imports from Central Asia is much volatile although it is increasing in the long run.

 Year ExportImport Central Asia (Million $) World (Million $) Share Central Asia (Million $) World (Million $) Share % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % China and Central Asia agricultural trade

 Trade with Central Asia countries

 CountryClassification 2014 Import value (Million $) Export value (Million $) Kazakhstan Plant Products Food, beverage, spirits, vinegar, Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes Other agricultural products Kyrgyzstan Animal Products Plant Products Uzbekistan Plant Products Other agricultural products The Categories of agricultural trade between China and Central Asia

 CommodityValue(Million $) Cotton, not carded or combed Wheat and meslin plants used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes Other nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled Sunflower seeds, whether or not broken products not elsewhere specified or included Commodities import from Central Asia in 2014 (Top 6)

 Commodity Value (Million $) Apples, pears and quinces, fresh Citrus fruit, fresh or dried Meat of swine, fresh, chilled or frozen Tea, whether or not flavoured Apricots, cherries, peaches, plums and sloes, fresh Meat of bovine animals, frozen Meat and edible offal, of the poultry of heading 01.05, fresh, chilled or frozen Peptones and their derivatives; other protein substances and their derivatives, Tomatoes prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid Tomatoes, fresh or chilled Commodities export from Central Asia in 2014 (Top 10)

 China and Central Asia agricultural trade  The bilateral agricultural trade increase significantly since  The trade proportion are still relatively small.  The bilateral agricultural trade enjoy complementarity instead of competitiveness.  Owing to the difference in endowments agricultural process, agricultural resources and market demands.

  History of Silk Road  New mission of One Belt One Road Initiative  China and Central Asia agricultural trade  Determinates of Bilateral agricultural trade  Conclusion and implication Framework

  Empirical Models Panel data gravity model is employed. The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative is considered. A multinomial PML estimation method is used.  Data Resources UN Comtrade Database World Development Indicators Dataset of WB Worldwide Governance Indicators WTO Determinates of Bilateral agricultural trade

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  History of Silk Road  New mission of One Belt One Road Initiative  China and Central Asia agricultural trade  Determinates of Bilateral agricultural trade  Conclusion and implication Framework

  The bilateral agricultural trade increase significantly since  The trade proportion are still relatively small.  The bilateral agricultural trade enjoy complementarity instead of competitiveness.  Owing to the difference in endowments agricultural process, agricultural resources and market demands. Conclusion and implication: China aspect

  Promote the investment in agricultural infrastructure in Central Asia countries.  Establish a specific department responsible for agricultural sector cooperation along the “one road and one belt” initiative.  Erase the trade obstacle between China and Central Asia by agricultural cooperation or sign the favored trade agreements. Conclusion and implication: China aspect