Voter Turnout in Texas FEBRUARY 2, 2016

Not Everyone Votes

Participation in Texas Voting eligible population excludes non-citizens, prison inmates, etc.

Which group is the most important?

Participation in Texas Across Time Why is turnout in 2002, 2006, and 2010 less it was in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012? Turnout is highest in presidential election years and 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 were presidential election years.

Presidential and Non-Presidential Year Turnout The electorate in a non- presidential year is different from the electorate in a presidential year. The lower the turnout the more white the electorate, the older, the wealthier. A presidential election year turnout is more diverse. Which electorate is more Democratic? Which is more Republican? The presidential election year turnout is more Democratic; the midterm turnout is more Republican.

Midterm Election Turnout In 2014, Texas turnout as a percentage of the VEP was only 28.3 percent, the third lowest rate in the nation was the last competitive race for governor.

2014 Texas Election

Turnout Varies by Election Why is turnout highest in the presidential election, lowest in the constitutional amendment election?

Factors Affecting Turnout The most important factors affecting voter turnout: Psychological engagement (How interested are people in an election and its outcome?) Voter mobilization (How effective are campaigns, political parties, and interest groups at getting out the vote?) What role do campaigns play in turnout? Campaigns engage voters in the election and get out the vote.

Texas Turnout Lags Compared with Other States

Turnout Map

High levels of participation are associated with older, better-educated populations with relatively high incomes and Texas is none of the above. Parties and unions mobilize voters. They are both relatively weak in Texas. High levels of immigration to Texas. Newcomers are less likely to vote than long-term residents. Texas has not been a battleground state. Therefore, neither party has invested resources in registering and turning out voters. Why Texas Lags

Are voters representative? Voters as a group are wealthier, better educated, and older than the adult population. That is especially true in Texas.

POPULATION OF TEXAS 47 percent white 10 percent are 65 and over Average household income is $50 K 23 percent hold bachelor’s degrees or better 2010 ELECTORATE 67 percent white 77 percent over percent 65 and over 73 percent make $100 K or more 85 percent have college degrees 66 percent have no children under 18 Residents and Voters What policy differences would you expect between the state’s residents and its electorate?

Latino Turnout in Texas How does Latino turnout in Texas compare with Latino turnout in other states with large Latino populations? Latino turnout in Texas lags behind Latino turnout in other states.

Latino Turnout in Texas II

Latino Voter Mobilization in Texas Lags

Texas Vote by Age Group What does the chart tell us about voter participation in Texas compared with the U.S. as a whole? Younger Texans are LESS likely to vote than young people nationwide whereas older Texans are MORE likely to vote.

Texas Voters Conservative The electorate in Texas is significantly more conservative than the population as a whole and the state’s public policies reflect that conservatism.

Quiz Voter turnout in Texas would be the largest for which of the following types of elections? A) Constitutional amendment election B) Statewide race for governor C) Presidential election D) Turnout would be similar for all three of the above elections. The correct answer is C.

What You Have Learned Why is voter participation in Texas greater in presidential election years than in other years? What factors are associated with voter participation? How do voter turnout rates in Texas compare with rates in other states? Why does voter turnout lag in Texas compared with other states? What groups of Texans are more/less likely to turn out to vote? Is the Texas electorate representative of the state’s population?