Engineering the POlicy-making LIfe CYcle Dr Tina Balke

Project Overview Objective ICT target ICT solutions for Governance and Policy Modeling Start October 2011, Duration 36 Months

Project Partners No.NameCountryMain skills 1ALMA MATER STUDIORUM Università di Bologna (UNIBO) ITALYHybrid Optimization techniques, constraint and integer programming meta-heuristics 2University College CorkIRELANDPolicy modelling, game theory and mechanism design 3The University of SurreyUKSocial Simulation, policy modelling, data analysis. 4Universidade do PortoPORTUGALMachine Learning and Logic Programming 5Fraunhofer Institute for Computer Graphics Research GERMANYInformation visualisation and visual analytics (interactive and semantics-based visualisation of decision-critical information) 6Regione Emilia RomagnaITALYPolicy developer, e-participation promoter 7PPA-EnergyUKTechnological and economical advice in the electricity sector 8ASTERITALYtechnology transfer, research results dissemination 9Università di FerraraITALYMulti-objective optimization statistical learning

Background (eGovPoliNet) Current challenges in dealing with economic & societal variability Inappropriate ICT support in foresights, especially in long- term policy planning Lack/inability of managing complexity in strategic planning and policy making in complex socioeconomic environments Lack of open collaboration and lack of transparency in identifying the crucial features of complex social and macroeconomic models to simulate potential alternative policies Goal: Overcome traditional fragmentation of research efforts through consolidation and integration

Vision To support policy makers in their decision process across a multi- disciplinary effort aimed at the engineering of a policy making life- cycle that integrates, in a unique way, global and individual perspectives on the decision process. To evaluate the economic, social and environmental impacts during policy making (at both the global and individual levels). To derive social impacts through opinion mining on e-participation data To aid the policy maker, citizens and stakeholders with visualization tools

General Scheme Case study: the Emilia Romagna Regional Energy Plan

Objectives The e-POLICY project aims to equip policy makers with integrated models, optimization, visualization, simulation and opinion mining techniques that improve the outcomes of complex global decision making. Obj 1 Integration of regional and individual level modelling Obj 2 Insert impact assessment during the regional plan construction Obj 3 Insert social impacts from opinion mining into the individual and the global models Obj 4 Support the policy making life cycle with visualization tools

Policy Making Life Cycle

Expected Outcomes A flexible tool for optimization and decision support for policy making at global (regional) level taking into account objectives, constraints, financial issues and impacts on environment, economy and society An agent-based simulation approach at individual level for identifying the best policy implementation strategies A game theoretical approach for the interaction between the global and the individual levels Techniques for opinion mining for social impacts derived from e-participation data A novel application of visual analytics techniques for supporting policy makers in the decision process and helping citizens and stakeholders in providing a more informed evaluation; in particular geo-referenced visualisation will be considered An open source tool integrating the above mentioned components that is open, accessible and reusable in other policy contexts Extensive activities aimed at achieving the highest level of dissemination of project results and preparing for the exploitation of the proposed solution overall and of each individual components

Workplan and Components WP1: Project Management WP10: Dissemination and Exploitation WP3 Global Policy modeling Optimization and decision support WP3 Global Policy modeling Optimization and decision support WP5 Game-theory based interaction WP5 Game-theory based interaction WP8: System Integration, Validation & Assessment WP7 Visual analytics WP7 Visual analytics WP6 Opinion mining on e-Participation data WP6 Opinion mining on e-Participation data WP2:Policy Modeling WP4 Individual Policy modeling Agent based simulation WP4 Individual Policy modeling Agent based simulation WP9: Demonstration on the Reg. Energy Plan

Social Simulation Question: What are the effect of policy instrument A and/or B on the photovoltaic system diffusion (individual level) in the Emilia Romagna region with respect to: Individual photovoltaic technology adoption CO2 emission Costs of the policy instrument … Suggestions for policy instruments: financial (subsidies) informational (less (perceived) red tape)

Social Simulation Underlying question: What are the decision drivers for individuals to considers to opt for photovoltaic technology? identity wealth (break-even) belongingness (neighborhood effect) freedom (linked to wealth) creation trust in future perceived bureaucracy

Social Simulation A quick demo…

Contact Project co-ordinator: Michela Milano, Università di Bologna, My contact details: Tina Balke, University of Surrey, Center for Research in Social Simulation,